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This model is not the only reason governments have acted. They also saw what happened in Wuhan, Italy, NYC, etc. Also, the US federal government doesn't use it

by creato 6y ago

This model is not the only reason governments have acted. They also saw what happened in Wuhan, Italy, NYC, etc. Also, the US federal government doesn't use it, they use a model from UW: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/2/21241261/coronavirus-modeling-us-deaths-ihme-pandemic https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/2/21241261/coronav...

WalterBright 6y ago
Is the UW model based on the Ferguson code or not? The article I cited says Microsoft is doing a rewrite of the Ferguson code, and the UW model is funded by Bill Gates' foundation, and we all know that Bill is closely connected to Microsoft.
- joshuamorton 6y ago
  Given that the UW model chronically underestimates the US death toll, can you explain the reasoning behind "we shouldn't trust the model, but also we should still reopen"?
  - WalterBright 6y ago
    Just because it's junk science doesn't mean I have better scientific analyses at my disposal.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    The UW model can't be said to estimate or underestimate anything at all - it's just curve fitting and is being constantly updated because the moment they issue an update, it's immediately out of line with reality. And not just out of line but outside the uncertainty bounds too. There's a review of the performance of the model and its updates here: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-projection-models-proving-unreliable/ https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-p...
leereeves 6y ago
But how applicable is the experience of Wuhan, Italy, NYC, etc to most of the US? People who live in areas with low population density don't think they need to shut down just because areas with high population density are vulnerable to this outbreak. If you want to convince them, you'll have to show them examples where communities like their own have been hit hard by the virus.

by creato 6y ago

WalterBright 6y ago

Is the UW model based on the Ferguson code or not? The article I cited says Microsoft is doing a rewrite of the Ferguson code, and the UW model is funded by Bill Gates' foundation, and we all know that Bill is closely connected to Microsoft.

joshuamorton 6y ago
Given that the UW model chronically underestimates the US death toll, can you explain the reasoning behind "we shouldn't trust the model, but also we should still reopen"?
- WalterBright 6y ago
  Just because it's junk science doesn't mean I have better scientific analyses at my disposal.
- thu2111 6y ago
  The UW model can't be said to estimate or underestimate anything at all - it's just curve fitting and is being constantly updated because the moment they issue an update, it's immediately out of line with reality. And not just out of line but outside the uncertainty bounds too. There's a review of the performance of the model and its updates here: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-projection-models-proving-unreliable/ https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-p...

leereeves 6y ago

But how applicable is the experience of Wuhan, Italy, NYC, etc to most of the US? People who live in areas with low population density don't think they need to shut down just because areas with high population density are vulnerable to this outbreak. If you want to convince them, you'll have to show them examples where communities like their own have been hit hard by the virus.