4 ms·

No one can say masks would have that effect. Not enough evidence (yet?)

by robk 6y ago

ceejayoz 6y ago
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infec... > “One reason is that nearly everyone there is wearing a mask,” said De Kai, an American computer scientist with joint appointments at UC Berkeley’s International Computer Science Institute and at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is also the chief architect of an in-depth study, set to be released in the coming days, that suggests that every one of us should be wearing a mask—whether surgical or homemade, scarf or bandana—like they do in Japan and other countries, mostly in East Asia. This formula applies to President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence (occasional mask refuseniks) as well as every other official who routinely interacts with people in public settings. Among the findings of their research paper, which the team plans to submit to a major journal: If 80% of a closed population were to don a mask, COVID-19 infection rates would statistically drop to approximately one twelfth the number of infections—compared to a live-virus population in which no one wore masks.
- greglindahl 6y ago
  Article in Vanity Fair about a computer scientist who plans on submitting a paper for peer review at some point in the future. I wear a mask, but I have no illusions about how unsettled the science around doing so is.
  - dkfjdkfjda 6y ago
    I agree there's a lot of misconceptions and myths about masks. It clearly is not a panacea, it's really difficult (or even impossible) to quantify the impact, especially when combined with other precautions. Plus there's very little research about how masks affect this particular virus, because it's always somewhat specific. IMO the best thing we can do is look at experience from countries that managed to get the infection under control, like SK. I highly recommend these interviews with one of their leading experts, what he says makes a lot of sense: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwoNP9QWr4Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwoNP9QWr4Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU When he says face masks are one of the effective measures, I'd probably trust him ... The question is what exactly should be the rules. Our country is in a lockdown for ~2 months now, and most of the time face masks were required when leaving the house. We're probably going to relax the rules a bit soon, only requiring them when closed spaced, etc. Which probably makes sense, it's pointless to wear a mask when jogging alone in the woods, or something like that (and people were not following that perfectly anyway). My personal opinion is that face masks do help, partly because they limit how far your droplets reach, partly because it limits how frequently you touch your face. Even a simple home-made mask or scarf will help with that. I think a lot of the "do not wear masks" recommendations in many countries is due to concerns that a recommendation to wear a face mask would make the shortage even worse.
    - greglindahl 6y ago
      > IMO the best thing we can do is look at experience from countries that managed to get the infection under control, What experience? You go on to recommend listening to an interview. I was hoping for data. Remember that we're discussing the suggestion in this pre-pre-preprint that we can be confident that wearing masks has a huge effect on the infection rate.
gremlinsinc 6y ago
There's some evidence, and countries w/ mask culture seem to be doing better. It also has a psychological value of reminding yourself not to touch your face and reminding others that to keep distance. So, that could also be part of the reason it works, could be some placebo effects that add to the safety, but the fact is masks don't really protect the wearer because apparently stuff can come in through sides/and such but it protects others if you cough or sneeze, or just breath out droplets. It's a combined effect that only works if it's got at least 80% compliance, preferably 100% should be required. Why take the risk of killing someone if the wearing a mask could alleviate it? Is wearing a mask such a horrible thing?

No one can say masks would have that effect. Not enough evidence (yet?)

by robk 6y ago

No one can say masks would have that effect. Not enough evidence (yet?)

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infec... > “One reason is that nearly everyone there is wearing a mask,” said De Kai, an American computer scientist with joint appointments at UC Berkeley’s International Computer Science Institute and at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is also the chief architect of an in-depth study, set to be released in the coming days, that suggests that every one of us should be wearing a mask—whether surgical or homemade, scarf or bandana—like they do in Japan and other countries, mostly in East Asia. This formula applies to President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence (occasional mask refuseniks) as well as every other official who routinely interacts with people in public settings. Among the findings of their research paper, which the team plans to submit to a major journal: If 80% of a closed population were to don a mask, COVID-19 infection rates would statistically drop to approximately one twelfth the number of infections—compared to a live-virus population in which no one wore masks.

greglindahl 6y ago
Article in Vanity Fair about a computer scientist who plans on submitting a paper for peer review at some point in the future. I wear a mask, but I have no illusions about how unsettled the science around doing so is.
- dkfjdkfjda 6y ago
  I agree there's a lot of misconceptions and myths about masks. It clearly is not a panacea, it's really difficult (or even impossible) to quantify the impact, especially when combined with other precautions. Plus there's very little research about how masks affect this particular virus, because it's always somewhat specific. IMO the best thing we can do is look at experience from countries that managed to get the infection under control, like SK. I highly recommend these interviews with one of their leading experts, what he says makes a lot of sense: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwoNP9QWr4Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwoNP9QWr4Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU When he says face masks are one of the effective measures, I'd probably trust him ... The question is what exactly should be the rules. Our country is in a lockdown for ~2 months now, and most of the time face masks were required when leaving the house. We're probably going to relax the rules a bit soon, only requiring them when closed spaced, etc. Which probably makes sense, it's pointless to wear a mask when jogging alone in the woods, or something like that (and people were not following that perfectly anyway). My personal opinion is that face masks do help, partly because they limit how far your droplets reach, partly because it limits how frequently you touch your face. Even a simple home-made mask or scarf will help with that. I think a lot of the "do not wear masks" recommendations in many countries is due to concerns that a recommendation to wear a face mask would make the shortage even worse.
  - greglindahl 6y ago
    > IMO the best thing we can do is look at experience from countries that managed to get the infection under control, What experience? You go on to recommend listening to an interview. I was hoping for data. Remember that we're discussing the suggestion in this pre-pre-preprint that we can be confident that wearing masks has a huge effect on the infection rate.

gremlinsinc 6y ago

There's some evidence, and countries w/ mask culture seem to be doing better. It also has a psychological value of reminding yourself not to touch your face and reminding others that to keep distance. So, that could also be part of the reason it works, could be some placebo effects that add to the safety, but the fact is masks don't really protect the wearer because apparently stuff can come in through sides/and such but it protects others if you cough or sneeze, or just breath out droplets. It's a combined effect that only works if it's got at least 80% compliance, preferably 100% should be required. Why take the risk of killing someone if the wearing a mask could alleviate it? Is wearing a mask such a horrible thing?