4 ms·
wharton published a "Coronavirus Policy Response Simulator" on may 1st [1]. Their analysis comes to the conclusion that fully reopening ("States immediately li
by ovslylegit 6y ago
wharton published a "Coronavirus Policy Response Simulator" on may 1st [1].
Their analysis comes to the conclusion that fully reopening ("States immediately lift all orders listed above as well as restrictions on the operation of businesses and restaurants.") would lead to 500k lost jobs from May first and 350k deaths until end of june 2020, while partially reopening ("States immediately lift emergency declarations, stay-at-home orders, and school closures.") would result in -11.3 Million jobs lost and 162k deaths. Both assuming, that each individual maintains their current social distancing practice.
Year-Over-Year GDP change % would be almost identical, -10.1 vs. -10.7.
So fully reopening, compared to partially, would save ~11 million jobs, but lead to roughly 190k more deaths.
Considering the $10 million as the current value of a human life, a job would be $~172k for the comparison fully vs partially reopening while maintaining current social distancing measures.
[1] https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2020/5/1/coronavirus-reopening-simulator https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2020/5/1/corona...