3 ms·
> "I don't even know a conceptual framework to think about it. For 100% it would probably be "all my money" (I'm not suicidal). Should it be half percent of my
by clairity 6y ago
> "I don't even know a conceptual framework to think about it. For 100% it would probably be "all my money" (I'm not suicidal). Should it be half percent of my money for a half percent event?"
without knowing anything else, it's pretty straightforward: 0.5% * $10MM = $50K. that's what you should pay. but, that's not considering any priors that change that result drastically one way or the other.
in any case, it's irrational to think we should (and can) save every life at all costs, at all times. that's not living; that's cowering in fear. we have no control over many things that can kill us, so we need to buffet our understanding of risks and steel our resolve to face them.
more importantly, it's inconsistent with our very own actions. we take many, many risks every single day that have non-trivial likelihood of death, like getting into a car (1 in 100 lifetime odds of death). we need to work hard to contextualize new risks based on our past actions, so that we know how much mitigation we should invest in. we can't mitigate everything all the time. we must pick and choose to maximize the return of those mitigations, balanced against the value of the things we cherish.