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I imagine a significant fraction of the 5.5 million unemployed in the food and drink sector will quickly get back to work once the economy reopens. These busine

I imagine a significant fraction of the 5.5 million unemployed in the food and drink sector will quickly get back to work once the economy reopens. These businesses are essentially on pause; if the state can support them until it is time to reopen, then the jobs will still be intact at the end. I don't think the demand for restaurants and bars has gone down by much.

user5994461 6y ago
Don't think so because all the smaller shops have rent arrears and salary arrears. The lockdown coming to and end doesn't alleviate that. The only way for the owners to stop the bleeding and move on with their life is to close shop and go into bankruptcy. Thus shops die and jobs disappear, permanently. They maybe could have survived if the lockdown only lasted one month, it's tough on cash flow but restaurants have always been a rough business. Unfortunately it's been almost 2 months now and there are still no plan to end the lockdown. Losses are staggering and continue to accrue day by day, there is nothing that can make up for it.
code_biologist 6y ago
The real issue is the timeline and structure of work "until it is time to reopen". Let's be clear, it will be time to fully reopen once we reach near-herd immunity or we have a vaccine with fairly widespread deployment — say 12 months out? Until then, restaurant and bar demand seems like it will be weird: takeout should recover, social distancing and masks heavily affecting dine-in, and zero major social gatherings (crowded bars, concerts, festivals, sporting events, etc.). So the question is: can the state support the workers serving the latter end of the food and drink service spectrum for 12 months? I think it's going to be ugly.
kitotik 6y ago
You are vastly underestimating how many customers and employees will simply refuse to go to a restaurant or bar due to health risks. You are also discounting the number of these businesses that have already permanently closed. This was an industry already operating on razor thin margins, even a temporary 10% drop in demand will cause many more to shudder their doors.

user5994461 6y ago

Don't think so because all the smaller shops have rent arrears and salary arrears. The lockdown coming to and end doesn't alleviate that. The only way for the owners to stop the bleeding and move on with their life is to close shop and go into bankruptcy. Thus shops die and jobs disappear, permanently. They maybe could have survived if the lockdown only lasted one month, it's tough on cash flow but restaurants have always been a rough business. Unfortunately it's been almost 2 months now and there are still no plan to end the lockdown. Losses are staggering and continue to accrue day by day, there is nothing that can make up for it.

code_biologist 6y ago

The real issue is the timeline and structure of work "until it is time to reopen". Let's be clear, it will be time to fully reopen once we reach near-herd immunity or we have a vaccine with fairly widespread deployment — say 12 months out? Until then, restaurant and bar demand seems like it will be weird: takeout should recover, social distancing and masks heavily affecting dine-in, and zero major social gatherings (crowded bars, concerts, festivals, sporting events, etc.). So the question is: can the state support the workers serving the latter end of the food and drink service spectrum for 12 months? I think it's going to be ugly.

kitotik 6y ago

You are vastly underestimating how many customers and employees will simply refuse to go to a restaurant or bar due to health risks. You are also discounting the number of these businesses that have already permanently closed. This was an industry already operating on razor thin margins, even a temporary 10% drop in demand will cause many more to shudder their doors.