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> why should share prices fall by more than 5-10% for every year that Corona is locking down the economy? Risk adjustment. 1-Risk of death/bankruptcy for comp
by ericb 6y ago
> why should share prices fall by more than 5-10% for every year that Corona is locking down the economy?
Risk adjustment.
1-Risk of death/bankruptcy for companies.
2-Risk of reduced consumer spending. This can happen because people are in financial shock, or because unemployment stays high. Perhaps some of these layoffs aren't "furloughs." Some of these businesses won't survive, like many restaurants. My expense is your revenue, but I won't spend if I don't feel "safe" physically and financially and if I don't have a job, well... On top of which, what if some part of society stops going out?
3-Risk of permanently slowed economic activity due to coronavirus spread in trading partners.
4-Risk that the vaccines don't work out and there is no "time after corona." Even if this risk is small, it is non-zero, and catastrophic.