5 ms·

Serious question: can you show me the metrics for california with concrete targets that will trigger reopening? The last plan I saw wasn't a plan at all, it wa

Serious question: can you show me the metrics for california with concrete targets that will trigger reopening? The last plan I saw wasn't a plan at all, it was just guidelines.

marcinzm 6y ago
I don't see the difference between plan and guidelines from any practical point of view. There is a statewide timeline and counties can open slower/faster. There's a list of criteria for counties to consider. This is a slide deck summarizing things at a state level, it notes a variety of metrics that are being looked at: https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Update-on-California-Pandemic-Roadmap.pdf https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Update-on-...
- mdorazio 6y ago
  Here's a plan: when we get to X new cases per day, we will reopen. Here's a guideline: we'll reopen when we think it's safe. The former has concrete goals that you can measure against and take action on. The latter has no clarity whatsoever. If I presented a project plan the way California has presented its Covid reopening "plans" I would be fired.
  - marcinzm 6y ago
    Except "the population feeling safe" is the only metric that really matters. Everything else is a proxy. If the population doesn't feel safe then they will protest and not resume activities. The other metrics can be golden but if the population disagree you will have trouble in a democracy.
cozzyd 6y ago
At least in Illinois, opening targets are based on agent-based simulations of disease spread. Specifically, the simulations predicted that if Illinois had reopened on May 1, we would have seen a larger peak than the initial one in June. You can read about it here: https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-inside-one-models-city-hall-uses-track-how-fast-covid-19-spreads https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-insi...
pm90 6y ago
For California, see SF Chronicles' COVID Tracker page: https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/ https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/. It even has a checklist with the targets that must be met before a county can lift quarantine.
- mdorazio 6y ago
  Thanks, it's really confusing because there are multiple conflicting sources with different guidelines and the governor's statements have indicated Phase 2 is still case-by-case and phases 3 and 4 are "sometime soonish". In addition to the metrics that SF Chronicle page is tracking for Bay Area counties, there's also [1], [2], and [3] in addition to the original governor's slides a few weeks ago. I can't find any concrete goals from official sources for completely reopening the state (phase 4). [1] https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Here-s-a-checklist-of-what-California-counties-15254787.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Here-s-a-checkl... [2] https://apnews.com/2c69fe294f73a1120c2dad4a738966e3 https://apnews.com/2c69fe294f73a1120c2dad4a738966e3 [3] https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5.4-Report-Card-on-California-Resilience-Roadmap.pdf https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5.4-Report...
joshuamorton 6y ago
Targets for early reopening (ie before the state at large): - 1.5 tests per 1000 people per day - No deaths in the past 14 days - Some max number of cases per day that's really low - Stockpile of PPE (I forget the exact numbers) - A minimum number of contact tracers (I think also 1.5 per 1000 people, although it may be an order of magnitude lower) The bay area has a more stringent set of guidelines (minus the number of deaths that another person linked to).

Serious question: can you show me the metrics for california with concrete targets that will trigger reopening? The last plan I saw wasn't a plan at all, it was just guidelines.

marcinzm 6y ago

I don't see the difference between plan and guidelines from any practical point of view. There is a statewide timeline and counties can open slower/faster. There's a list of criteria for counties to consider. This is a slide deck summarizing things at a state level, it notes a variety of metrics that are being looked at: https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Update-on-California-Pandemic-Roadmap.pdf https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Update-on-...

mdorazio 6y ago
Here's a plan: when we get to X new cases per day, we will reopen. Here's a guideline: we'll reopen when we think it's safe. The former has concrete goals that you can measure against and take action on. The latter has no clarity whatsoever. If I presented a project plan the way California has presented its Covid reopening "plans" I would be fired.
- marcinzm 6y ago
  Except "the population feeling safe" is the only metric that really matters. Everything else is a proxy. If the population doesn't feel safe then they will protest and not resume activities. The other metrics can be golden but if the population disagree you will have trouble in a democracy.

cozzyd 6y ago

At least in Illinois, opening targets are based on agent-based simulations of disease spread. Specifically, the simulations predicted that if Illinois had reopened on May 1, we would have seen a larger peak than the initial one in June. You can read about it here: https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-inside-one-models-city-hall-uses-track-how-fast-covid-19-spreads https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-insi...

pm90 6y ago

For California, see SF Chronicles' COVID Tracker page: https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/ https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/. It even has a checklist with the targets that must be met before a county can lift quarantine.

mdorazio 6y ago
Thanks, it's really confusing because there are multiple conflicting sources with different guidelines and the governor's statements have indicated Phase 2 is still case-by-case and phases 3 and 4 are "sometime soonish". In addition to the metrics that SF Chronicle page is tracking for Bay Area counties, there's also [1], [2], and [3] in addition to the original governor's slides a few weeks ago. I can't find any concrete goals from official sources for completely reopening the state (phase 4). [1] https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Here-s-a-checklist-of-what-California-counties-15254787.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Here-s-a-checkl... [2] https://apnews.com/2c69fe294f73a1120c2dad4a738966e3 https://apnews.com/2c69fe294f73a1120c2dad4a738966e3 [3] https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5.4-Report-Card-on-California-Resilience-Roadmap.pdf https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5.4-Report...

joshuamorton 6y ago

Targets for early reopening (ie before the state at large): - 1.5 tests per 1000 people per day - No deaths in the past 14 days - Some max number of cases per day that's really low - Stockpile of PPE (I forget the exact numbers) - A minimum number of contact tracers (I think also 1.5 per 1000 people, although it may be an order of magnitude lower) The bay area has a more stringent set of guidelines (minus the number of deaths that another person linked to).