3 ms·

So, how much money or effort would you spend to avoid a hypothetical event that kills you with a well known probability, say half percent? I don't even know a

So, how much money or effort would you spend to avoid a hypothetical event that kills you with a well known probability, say half percent? I don't even know a conceptual framework to think about it. For 100% it would probably be "all my money" (I'm not suicidal). Should it be half percent of my money for a half percent event?

shakezula 6y ago
But it’s not just your life you’re gambling with. You’re gambling with other people’s lives. People who have just as much right to life as you do. People who may be in a much higher risk bracket than you. People who might very well die.
- praptak 6y ago
  I'm not talking about the virus, just a hypothetical event that kills only me
mettamage 6y ago
That doesn't sound like a linear relationship to me and unfortunately many people have experienced this IRL. There are enough people with 33% chance of dying who will go into debt if they have to.
clairity 6y ago
> "I don't even know a conceptual framework to think about it. For 100% it would probably be "all my money" (I'm not suicidal). Should it be half percent of my money for a half percent event?" without knowing anything else, it's pretty straightforward: 0.5% * $10MM = $50K. that's what you should pay. but, that's not considering any priors that change that result drastically one way or the other. in any case, it's irrational to think we should (and can) save every life at all costs, at all times. that's not living; that's cowering in fear. we have no control over many things that can kill us, so we need to buffet our understanding of risks and steel our resolve to face them. more importantly, it's inconsistent with our very own actions. we take many, many risks every single day that have non-trivial likelihood of death, like getting into a car (1 in 100 lifetime odds of death). we need to work hard to contextualize new risks based on our past actions, so that we know how much mitigation we should invest in. we can't mitigate everything all the time. we must pick and choose to maximize the return of those mitigations, balanced against the value of the things we cherish.

shakezula 6y ago

But it’s not just your life you’re gambling with. You’re gambling with other people’s lives. People who have just as much right to life as you do. People who may be in a much higher risk bracket than you. People who might very well die.

praptak 6y ago
I'm not talking about the virus, just a hypothetical event that kills only me

mettamage 6y ago

That doesn't sound like a linear relationship to me and unfortunately many people have experienced this IRL. There are enough people with 33% chance of dying who will go into debt if they have to.

clairity 6y ago

> "I don't even know a conceptual framework to think about it. For 100% it would probably be "all my money" (I'm not suicidal). Should it be half percent of my money for a half percent event?" without knowing anything else, it's pretty straightforward: 0.5% * $10MM = $50K. that's what you should pay. but, that's not considering any priors that change that result drastically one way or the other. in any case, it's irrational to think we should (and can) save every life at all costs, at all times. that's not living; that's cowering in fear. we have no control over many things that can kill us, so we need to buffet our understanding of risks and steel our resolve to face them. more importantly, it's inconsistent with our very own actions. we take many, many risks every single day that have non-trivial likelihood of death, like getting into a car (1 in 100 lifetime odds of death). we need to work hard to contextualize new risks based on our past actions, so that we know how much mitigation we should invest in. we can't mitigate everything all the time. we must pick and choose to maximize the return of those mitigations, balanced against the value of the things we cherish.