17 ms·

>but I do know that continuing to pursue current policies until some indefinite point in the future is untenable. Go strawman, go! California and NY both have

>but I do know that continuing to pursue current policies until some indefinite point in the future is untenable. Go strawman, go! California and NY both have plans for slowly reopening in the comings weeks or months with various metrics guiding the timelines.

mdorazio 7y ago
Serious question: can you show me the metrics for california with concrete targets that will trigger reopening? The last plan I saw wasn't a plan at all, it was just guidelines.
- marcinzm 7y ago
  I don't see the difference between plan and guidelines from any practical point of view. There is a statewide timeline and counties can open slower/faster. There's a list of criteria for counties to consider. This is a slide deck summarizing things at a state level, it notes a variety of metrics that are being looked at: https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Update-on-California-Pandemic-Roadmap.pdf https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Update-on-...
  - mdorazio 7y ago
    Here's a plan: when we get to X new cases per day, we will reopen. Here's a guideline: we'll reopen when we think it's safe. The former has concrete goals that you can measure against and take action on. The latter has no clarity whatsoever. If I presented a project plan the way California has presented its Covid reopening "plans" I would be fired.
    - marcinzm 7y ago
      Except "the population feeling safe" is the only metric that really matters. Everything else is a proxy. If the population doesn't feel safe then they will protest and not resume activities. The other metrics can be golden but if the population disagree you will have trouble in a democracy.
- cozzyd 7y ago
  At least in Illinois, opening targets are based on agent-based simulations of disease spread. Specifically, the simulations predicted that if Illinois had reopened on May 1, we would have seen a larger peak than the initial one in June. You can read about it here: https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-inside-one-models-city-hall-uses-track-how-fast-covid-19-spreads https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-insi...
- pm90 7y ago
  For California, see SF Chronicles' COVID Tracker page: https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/ https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/. It even has a checklist with the targets that must be met before a county can lift quarantine.
  - mdorazio 7y ago
    Thanks, it's really confusing because there are multiple conflicting sources with different guidelines and the governor's statements have indicated Phase 2 is still case-by-case and phases 3 and 4 are "sometime soonish". In addition to the metrics that SF Chronicle page is tracking for Bay Area counties, there's also [1], [2], and [3] in addition to the original governor's slides a few weeks ago. I can't find any concrete goals from official sources for completely reopening the state (phase 4). [1] https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Here-s-a-checklist-of-what-California-counties-15254787.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Here-s-a-checkl... [2] https://apnews.com/2c69fe294f73a1120c2dad4a738966e3 https://apnews.com/2c69fe294f73a1120c2dad4a738966e3 [3] https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5.4-Report-Card-on-California-Resilience-Roadmap.pdf https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5.4-Report...
- joshuamorton 7y ago
  Targets for early reopening (ie before the state at large): - 1.5 tests per 1000 people per day - No deaths in the past 14 days - Some max number of cases per day that's really low - Stockpile of PPE (I forget the exact numbers) - A minimum number of contact tracers (I think also 1.5 per 1000 people, although it may be an order of magnitude lower) The bay area has a more stringent set of guidelines (minus the number of deaths that another person linked to).

mdorazio 7y ago

Serious question: can you show me the metrics for california with concrete targets that will trigger reopening? The last plan I saw wasn't a plan at all, it was just guidelines.

marcinzm 7y ago
I don't see the difference between plan and guidelines from any practical point of view. There is a statewide timeline and counties can open slower/faster. There's a list of criteria for counties to consider. This is a slide deck summarizing things at a state level, it notes a variety of metrics that are being looked at: https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Update-on-California-Pandemic-Roadmap.pdf https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Update-on-...
- mdorazio 7y ago
  Here's a plan: when we get to X new cases per day, we will reopen. Here's a guideline: we'll reopen when we think it's safe. The former has concrete goals that you can measure against and take action on. The latter has no clarity whatsoever. If I presented a project plan the way California has presented its Covid reopening "plans" I would be fired.
  - marcinzm 7y ago
    Except "the population feeling safe" is the only metric that really matters. Everything else is a proxy. If the population doesn't feel safe then they will protest and not resume activities. The other metrics can be golden but if the population disagree you will have trouble in a democracy.
cozzyd 7y ago
At least in Illinois, opening targets are based on agent-based simulations of disease spread. Specifically, the simulations predicted that if Illinois had reopened on May 1, we would have seen a larger peak than the initial one in June. You can read about it here: https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-inside-one-models-city-hall-uses-track-how-fast-covid-19-spreads https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/look-insi...
pm90 7y ago
For California, see SF Chronicles' COVID Tracker page: https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/ https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/. It even has a checklist with the targets that must be met before a county can lift quarantine.
- mdorazio 7y ago
  Thanks, it's really confusing because there are multiple conflicting sources with different guidelines and the governor's statements have indicated Phase 2 is still case-by-case and phases 3 and 4 are "sometime soonish". In addition to the metrics that SF Chronicle page is tracking for Bay Area counties, there's also [1], [2], and [3] in addition to the original governor's slides a few weeks ago. I can't find any concrete goals from official sources for completely reopening the state (phase 4). [1] https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Here-s-a-checklist-of-what-California-counties-15254787.php https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Here-s-a-checkl... [2] https://apnews.com/2c69fe294f73a1120c2dad4a738966e3 https://apnews.com/2c69fe294f73a1120c2dad4a738966e3 [3] https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5.4-Report-Card-on-California-Resilience-Roadmap.pdf https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/5.4-Report...
joshuamorton 7y ago
Targets for early reopening (ie before the state at large): - 1.5 tests per 1000 people per day - No deaths in the past 14 days - Some max number of cases per day that's really low - Stockpile of PPE (I forget the exact numbers) - A minimum number of contact tracers (I think also 1.5 per 1000 people, although it may be an order of magnitude lower) The bay area has a more stringent set of guidelines (minus the number of deaths that another person linked to).