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This isn't going to end until we reach herd immunity. Herd immunity doesn't imply all of us get infected. And the fatalities of this are not among a random 1%,

This isn't going to end until we reach herd immunity. Herd immunity doesn't imply all of us get infected. And the fatalities of this are not among a random 1%, it's primarily known groups that can be quarantined or protected separately.

s9w 6y ago
It ends way before herd immunity with other viruses.
- moduspol 6y ago
  Not all viruses have symptom-less 14-day periods where someone can be infected and spreading it to others without knowing. But yes, it could end before herd immunity. Or it could be like the flu, and mutate / continue indefinitely.
  - lbeltrame 6y ago
    Just to be precise: 14 days is not the median. The median is far lower (4-6 days), and I think we need studies on how early during the asymptomatic period one can actually spread the virus, because last I heard (but I lack reliable evidence), it was 2 or 3 days before symptoms showed up.
  - mikem170 6y ago
    >Or it could be like the flu, and mutate / continue indefinitely. I gather that is unlikely, coronaviruses don't mutate like the flu. In fact, according to experts, it is most likely that this coronavirus will decrease in severity over time and become endemic like the other several coronaviruses that are responsible for 15% of common colds. Or, alternatively, occasionally returning like a bad flu year. https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor... I remember reading in other places this may have happened before, something about a really bad flu year in the 1870's that may have been another coronavirus introducing itself to humanity.
wbl 6y ago
Healthy 30 year olds are ending up in the ICU. Many of them will have organ damage that will take years or may never heal. We can eradicate like New Zealand did. We choose not to. Is bugchasing really such a common kink?
- tdfx 6y ago
  As far as I've read, the number of healthy 30 year olds who went to the ICU and had organ damage is vanishingly small. Is there somewhere this is happening in any statistically significant way? There's a lot of ways a healthy 30 year can die yet only one particular way is getting any attention.
- tinus_hn 6y ago
  Healthy 30 year olds die from traffic accidents. Do you yearn for life in which all risk is avoided at all costs, and do you think it’s proper to force that on everyone else?
  - wbl 6y ago
    If 0.5٪ of the population was dying in a car accident every year you can be sure there would be a massive safety effort.
    - tinus_hn 6y ago
      0.5% of 30 year olds is not going to the hospital for Covid-19 by a long shot. In the Netherlands there are approximately 1.100.000 people between 30 and 34 years old (inclusive). Of those people 150 entered the hospital. That’s 0.01%. Most of these people are not dying (in fact only 3 of them did, which is 0.0003%) and while there isn’t a number of people with the chronic problems it definitely isn’t all of them. By the way slightly more than 0.1% of the population dies every year due to smoking. I have yet to see the massive safety efforts.
      - Vrixam 6y ago
        Only a fraction of those 1 100 000 individuals were infected until now.Estimates based on antibody tests hover around 3% infected.

s9w 6y ago

It ends way before herd immunity with other viruses.

moduspol 6y ago
Not all viruses have symptom-less 14-day periods where someone can be infected and spreading it to others without knowing. But yes, it could end before herd immunity. Or it could be like the flu, and mutate / continue indefinitely.
- lbeltrame 6y ago
  Just to be precise: 14 days is not the median. The median is far lower (4-6 days), and I think we need studies on how early during the asymptomatic period one can actually spread the virus, because last I heard (but I lack reliable evidence), it was 2 or 3 days before symptoms showed up.
- mikem170 6y ago
  >Or it could be like the flu, and mutate / continue indefinitely. I gather that is unlikely, coronaviruses don't mutate like the flu. In fact, according to experts, it is most likely that this coronavirus will decrease in severity over time and become endemic like the other several coronaviruses that are responsible for 15% of common colds. Or, alternatively, occasionally returning like a bad flu year. https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-cor... I remember reading in other places this may have happened before, something about a really bad flu year in the 1870's that may have been another coronavirus introducing itself to humanity.

wbl 6y ago

Healthy 30 year olds are ending up in the ICU. Many of them will have organ damage that will take years or may never heal. We can eradicate like New Zealand did. We choose not to. Is bugchasing really such a common kink?

tdfx 6y ago
As far as I've read, the number of healthy 30 year olds who went to the ICU and had organ damage is vanishingly small. Is there somewhere this is happening in any statistically significant way? There's a lot of ways a healthy 30 year can die yet only one particular way is getting any attention.
tinus_hn 6y ago
Healthy 30 year olds die from traffic accidents. Do you yearn for life in which all risk is avoided at all costs, and do you think it’s proper to force that on everyone else?
- wbl 6y ago
  If 0.5٪ of the population was dying in a car accident every year you can be sure there would be a massive safety effort.
  - tinus_hn 6y ago
    0.5% of 30 year olds is not going to the hospital for Covid-19 by a long shot. In the Netherlands there are approximately 1.100.000 people between 30 and 34 years old (inclusive). Of those people 150 entered the hospital. That’s 0.01%. Most of these people are not dying (in fact only 3 of them did, which is 0.0003%) and while there isn’t a number of people with the chronic problems it definitely isn’t all of them. By the way slightly more than 0.1% of the population dies every year due to smoking. I have yet to see the massive safety efforts.
    - Vrixam 6y ago
      Only a fraction of those 1 100 000 individuals were infected until now.Estimates based on antibody tests hover around 3% infected.