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> And I'm in continued amazement that people don't seem to understand that "beating it" was never the goal I've argued with many people who firmly believe it i

by umvi 7y ago

> And I'm in continued amazement that people don't seem to understand that "beating it" was never the goal I've argued with many people who firmly believe it is worth burning the economy to the ground in order to "save lives". Eventually, the argument distills down to: "Do you care more about corporate profits and bankers and billionaires OR peoples' lives?"

maxerickson 7y ago
It doesn't even boil down to that. Plenty (essentially all) of credible economists attribute much of the economic harm to the disease epidemic, and not just to the government response. People have to feel like eating at a restaurant is safe for being open to matter.
- CubsFan1060 7y ago
  I think that's very true. That being said, the government response and the media has certainly ratcheted up the fear.
  - umvi 7y ago
    > That being said, the government response and the media has certainly ratcheted up the fear. This is not brought up enough. There's a family of immigrants in my neighborhood from Sierra Leone, and the mom is so terrified of covid-19 that she won't let her kids go out and play, or even go to the local elementary school for free meals (they are on government assistance). We've delivered them food because of this fear. I've tried to explain that kids are at low risk and that it's probably worse to keep them locked inside for months vs. letting them play out side, but alas, the fear is too strong...
  - paulgb 7y ago
    Depends which government and which media. People who were going to spring break in Florida in March apparently weren't scared enough, and messages from the government and Fox News that this would be over by Easter didn't help that.
pinkfoot 7y ago
Value of a Statistical Life "VISCUSI: If you multiply the 1 million lives saved [Trump], and if the lives are worth $10 million each [OHSA], the result is $10 trillion. … Ten trillion dollars is half of the U.S. GDP, which means that in order to justify completely opening businesses back up, the economy would need to lose half of its value." [1] https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843 https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843
- marcinzm 7y ago
  To be pedantic, Covid is far more fatal to the elderly whose statistical "worth" is significantly less.
  - pinkfoot 7y ago
    Er no, as TFA mentions, when the USG they tried that American protested with signs saying "Granny for sale". Sufficiently that the USG dropped the 'pensioner discount'. You'd have to argue why its suddenly OK now. You can also argue to discount children - where I live, we make them by the dozen. It is less applicable to COVID-19 through. But VSL the correct framework because its based on the premium the average American at large puts on jobs to compensate for the risk of injury or death. What could be more democratic? But $10T is such a large envelope that even if you added the granny discount, you would still come out at an enormous fraction of USA and hence world GDP.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- pacala 7y ago
  The 'economy' is not some abstract entity. It is us, the people, going about our business every day. A hard lockdown is destroying all of the economy. No accounting tricks can mask that. We should not play accounting tricks to begin with. If we want to stoop at the article's level, note that the numbers are flawed, as they don't account for age distribution of the risk. https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1241741127205572609/photo/1 https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1241741127205572609/p...
Gwypaas 7y ago
What makes that question even harder is when you take into account the huge body of people back in January which were right at the margin of famine. When supply chains stop how will the lowest of the lowest on the ladder cope? "About 265 million people around the world are forecast to be facing acute food insecurity by the end of this year, a doubling of the 130 million estimated to suffer severe food shortages last year." [0] Excess death because overrun hospitals should never happen, but the global perspective is horrifying and will never give any easy answers. [0]: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/global-hunger-could-be-next-big-impact-of-coronavirus-pandemic https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/global-hunger-...
Johanx64 7y ago
No, the argument doesn't distill down to "corporate profits and bankers". It goes down to - do you want to save lives of wealthy - usually old middle class people in 1st world countries who can "afford to quarantine" or do you want to save more lives of people who are going to starve, become homeless or die due to massive economic disruption this extended quarantine is going to bring upon. It's only middle class pencil pushers who can quarantine at will semi-indefinitely and work from home who think extended general quarantine is even a viable option in the first place.

by umvi 7y ago

maxerickson 7y ago

It doesn't even boil down to that. Plenty (essentially all) of credible economists attribute much of the economic harm to the disease epidemic, and not just to the government response. People have to feel like eating at a restaurant is safe for being open to matter.

CubsFan1060 7y ago
I think that's very true. That being said, the government response and the media has certainly ratcheted up the fear.
- umvi 7y ago
  > That being said, the government response and the media has certainly ratcheted up the fear. This is not brought up enough. There's a family of immigrants in my neighborhood from Sierra Leone, and the mom is so terrified of covid-19 that she won't let her kids go out and play, or even go to the local elementary school for free meals (they are on government assistance). We've delivered them food because of this fear. I've tried to explain that kids are at low risk and that it's probably worse to keep them locked inside for months vs. letting them play out side, but alas, the fear is too strong...
- paulgb 7y ago
  Depends which government and which media. People who were going to spring break in Florida in March apparently weren't scared enough, and messages from the government and Fox News that this would be over by Easter didn't help that.

pinkfoot 7y ago

Value of a Statistical Life "VISCUSI: If you multiply the 1 million lives saved [Trump], and if the lives are worth $10 million each [OHSA], the result is $10 trillion. … Ten trillion dollars is half of the U.S. GDP, which means that in order to justify completely opening businesses back up, the economy would need to lose half of its value." [1] https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843 https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843

marcinzm 7y ago
To be pedantic, Covid is far more fatal to the elderly whose statistical "worth" is significantly less.
- pinkfoot 7y ago
  Er no, as TFA mentions, when the USG they tried that American protested with signs saying "Granny for sale". Sufficiently that the USG dropped the 'pensioner discount'. You'd have to argue why its suddenly OK now. You can also argue to discount children - where I live, we make them by the dozen. It is less applicable to COVID-19 through. But VSL the correct framework because its based on the premium the average American at large puts on jobs to compensate for the risk of injury or death. What could be more democratic? But $10T is such a large envelope that even if you added the granny discount, you would still come out at an enormous fraction of USA and hence world GDP.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
pacala 7y ago
The 'economy' is not some abstract entity. It is us, the people, going about our business every day. A hard lockdown is destroying all of the economy. No accounting tricks can mask that. We should not play accounting tricks to begin with. If we want to stoop at the article's level, note that the numbers are flawed, as they don't account for age distribution of the risk. https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1241741127205572609/photo/1 https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1241741127205572609/p...

Gwypaas 7y ago

What makes that question even harder is when you take into account the huge body of people back in January which were right at the margin of famine. When supply chains stop how will the lowest of the lowest on the ladder cope? "About 265 million people around the world are forecast to be facing acute food insecurity by the end of this year, a doubling of the 130 million estimated to suffer severe food shortages last year." [0] Excess death because overrun hospitals should never happen, but the global perspective is horrifying and will never give any easy answers. [0]: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/global-hunger-could-be-next-big-impact-of-coronavirus-pandemic https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/global-hunger-...

Johanx64 7y ago

No, the argument doesn't distill down to "corporate profits and bankers". It goes down to - do you want to save lives of wealthy - usually old middle class people in 1st world countries who can "afford to quarantine" or do you want to save more lives of people who are going to starve, become homeless or die due to massive economic disruption this extended quarantine is going to bring upon. It's only middle class pencil pushers who can quarantine at will semi-indefinitely and work from home who think extended general quarantine is even a viable option in the first place.