3 ms·

> The reproduction rate has risen to 1.1 - that means that ten people will pass the virus on to 11 more people. To keep the pandemic in check this level should

> The reproduction rate has risen to 1.1 - that means that ten people will pass the virus on to 11 more people. To keep the pandemic in check this level should be below one. So Germany is going for total eradication of this virus? What makes them think that’s possible.

m4rtink 7y ago
New Zeland ?
- mrfusion 7y ago
  Of course but that’s an island that has blocked off travel and stated that they don’t want to reopen borders anytime soon. They also have a lower population and density. Is the same thing realistic for an industrialized country in the middle of Europe?
  - m4rtink 7y ago
    We (the Czech Republic) and many neighboring countries did just that - the borders have been closed for everyone since middle of March, with police and army making sure this emergency meassure is observed. Only goods trains and trucks are let through and even they are often checked for compliance (driver has no fewer, etc.). Even cross border workers had to either stop commuting or arrange temporary accomodation on the other side of the border. So it is definitelly possible to "emullate an island" even in the middle of Europe, and it seems to have worked for the countriws that did it - daily case numbers are staying low, death toll is really low, so some of these restrictions are slowly being rolled back, with cross border bis and train lines resumming from 15th of May.
  - bengalister 7y ago
    It is actually 2 main islands only connected via ferry, so it is even easier to isolate people.
- djsumdog 7y ago
  If the rest of the world doesn't have full eradication and we see this thing spread through our environment, NZ could be in the interesting position of not being able to open their borders to people for a very long time.
  - robjan 7y ago
    Other countries and territories are also heading towards eradication. There is talk of an alliance between these places forming with free travel inside the alliance but locked down to people from outside.
rjtavares 7y ago
No. If they want to eradicate the disease they wouldn't ease the measures. You're quoting the journalist, not any German authority.
KarlKemp 7y ago
Sure. Getting R below 1.0 will, over time, lead to eradication. Infection rates have/had already fallen by about 85% from the peak in about 30 days, or one month. Plug it in: 6000 (peak daily infections) * (1 - 0.85)^Months, and you’d get to <1 daily infections within five months. And, of course, having already reduced cases by 85% makes tracing the remaining cases far easier. That, plus improvements in understanding the dynamics of the virus and all the countermeasures, now allows for a “budget” so-to-speak, to be spent on some loosening of restrictions and adding whatever is necessary to keep re-introductions at bay.

m4rtink 7y ago

New Zeland ?

mrfusion 7y ago
Of course but that’s an island that has blocked off travel and stated that they don’t want to reopen borders anytime soon. They also have a lower population and density. Is the same thing realistic for an industrialized country in the middle of Europe?
- m4rtink 7y ago
  We (the Czech Republic) and many neighboring countries did just that - the borders have been closed for everyone since middle of March, with police and army making sure this emergency meassure is observed. Only goods trains and trucks are let through and even they are often checked for compliance (driver has no fewer, etc.). Even cross border workers had to either stop commuting or arrange temporary accomodation on the other side of the border. So it is definitelly possible to "emullate an island" even in the middle of Europe, and it seems to have worked for the countriws that did it - daily case numbers are staying low, death toll is really low, so some of these restrictions are slowly being rolled back, with cross border bis and train lines resumming from 15th of May.
- bengalister 7y ago
  It is actually 2 main islands only connected via ferry, so it is even easier to isolate people.
djsumdog 7y ago
If the rest of the world doesn't have full eradication and we see this thing spread through our environment, NZ could be in the interesting position of not being able to open their borders to people for a very long time.
- robjan 7y ago
  Other countries and territories are also heading towards eradication. There is talk of an alliance between these places forming with free travel inside the alliance but locked down to people from outside.

rjtavares 7y ago

No. If they want to eradicate the disease they wouldn't ease the measures. You're quoting the journalist, not any German authority.

KarlKemp 7y ago

Sure. Getting R below 1.0 will, over time, lead to eradication. Infection rates have/had already fallen by about 85% from the peak in about 30 days, or one month. Plug it in: 6000 (peak daily infections) * (1 - 0.85)^Months, and you’d get to <1 daily infections within five months. And, of course, having already reduced cases by 85% makes tracing the remaining cases far easier. That, plus improvements in understanding the dynamics of the virus and all the countermeasures, now allows for a “budget” so-to-speak, to be spent on some loosening of restrictions and adding whatever is necessary to keep re-introductions at bay.