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Are hospitals approaching capacity? That’s what we should be watching. This thing can certainly go up and down week by week.

turbinerneiter 7y ago
~38 of intensive care beds are free in Germany right now.
- s9w 7y ago
  It's orders of magnitude more
  - turbinerneiter 7y ago
    Yes, because I was missing a % sign. 38% Now I look like a fake news idiot :D
- zvr 7y ago
  current number is: 12581 out of 32260 intensive care beds are free https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-deutschland-intensiv-betten-monitor-krankenhaus-auslastung/ https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-deutschland-intensiv...
ivan_gammel 7y ago
By now there’s a lot of empty beds and there’s more than sufficient capacity in testing. It totally makes sense to reopen a bit and try to find sustainable mode of quarantine.
- mrfusion 7y ago
  I’d like to see a focused approach on protecting nursing homes and the elderly. This is no way for the world to live. Please don’t try to normalize this.
  - CydeWeys 7y ago
    A lot more people than you realize are willing to sacrifice them to get the economy (and normal life) running again. They just don't talk about openly in stark terms, for obvious reasons.
    - luckylion 7y ago
      Everybody is willing to do so, the difference is only when. Some may think we should "sacrifice" them immediately, because living without a mocha latte grande whatever just isn't okay, but if we'd face mass starvation, I'm pretty sure that everybody would agree that we can't keep going. Of course, that's unlikely, but let's not pretend that there's some (sane) group of people out there, that actually say "under no circumstances may any life be put in danger, ever".
      - apatters 7y ago
        It is simply incredible that you've reduced the argument for lifting lockdowns to "getting a mocha latte grande whatever." I have never seen an argument made in such bad faith before. The US has just suffered its largest job losses in history. The people who lost these jobs skew heavily toward lower income brackets and little or no savings. The losses are still growing. How can you say something like this with a straight face?
        luckylion 7y ago
        > It is simply incredible that you've reduced the argument for lifting lockdowns to "getting a mocha latte grande whatever." I have never seen an argument made in such bad faith before. It's meant to be the worst possible reason to end the lock down, with "otherwise everybody dies" being the best possible reason. Everybody falls somewhere between these extremes. I just wanted to make clear that there is no sane position that responds to the worst possible circumstances by saying "lives must not be lost because of Covid-19, but I'm fine with them being lost because of our reaction to Covid-19". My personal opinion is somewhat close to yours, I believe. I'm aware that a massively shrinking economy has severe real world consequences.
- oezi 7y ago
  Contact tracing and testing continues to be abysmal. Friends had 15 minute contact to a person which was identified as positive 1 day later. Took 5 days for them to receive their test result taken on the day after notification.
  - makomk 7y ago
    In Germany? You have probably the biggest, best coronavirus testing program out there right now. Your program is the one that our press in the UK always points at in order to convince us that our government has failed us on testing. (Not all of their comparisons are actually true, but that's another topic.)
    - corty 7y ago
      I guess the real facts will only be known in the years after the crisis. Currently everyone is very much in propaganda&blame mode. I wouldn't trust any such comparison. For example two weeks ago the RKI "accidentially" reported a 30% rise in testing. Later they admitted no rise and a clerical error... Truth is, Germany currently has around 50% of its testing capacity unused because the bureaucracy still behaves as if tests were precious or just doesn't get around to issuing testing papers fast enough. And they still don't work in the weekends...
  - IfOnlyYouKnew 7y ago
    While not perfect, it's the notification that needs to be fast. After that, you're expected to isolate for two weeks no matter what, because any test wouldn't necessarily detect an infection if it's still in the earliest stages.
101404 7y ago
No, on the contrary. Germany has about 4 times as many ICU units as France, Italy or the UK. That's why we had so low fatality numbers, because hospitals never even got significantly above 50% capacity.
sitic 7y ago
This map [1] shows intensive care beds utilization is at 60% of capacity on average in Germany currently. In my local hospital they are starting to do elective treatments again, but are required to hold free 20% of regular beds, 25% of intensive care beds and have to be able to free up further 20% of beds within 72 hours if necessary. They are doing a PCR test for every patient admitted to the hospital (since April 6) and starting from Monday will test every admitted patient three times every week. [1] https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-deutschland-intensiv-betten-monitor-krankenhaus-auslastung/ https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-deutschland-intensiv...

turbinerneiter 7y ago

~38 of intensive care beds are free in Germany right now.

s9w 7y ago
It's orders of magnitude more
- turbinerneiter 7y ago
  Yes, because I was missing a % sign. 38% Now I look like a fake news idiot :D
zvr 7y ago
current number is: 12581 out of 32260 intensive care beds are free https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-deutschland-intensiv-betten-monitor-krankenhaus-auslastung/ https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-deutschland-intensiv...

ivan_gammel 7y ago

By now there’s a lot of empty beds and there’s more than sufficient capacity in testing. It totally makes sense to reopen a bit and try to find sustainable mode of quarantine.

mrfusion 7y ago
I’d like to see a focused approach on protecting nursing homes and the elderly. This is no way for the world to live. Please don’t try to normalize this.
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  A lot more people than you realize are willing to sacrifice them to get the economy (and normal life) running again. They just don't talk about openly in stark terms, for obvious reasons.
  - luckylion 7y ago
    Everybody is willing to do so, the difference is only when. Some may think we should "sacrifice" them immediately, because living without a mocha latte grande whatever just isn't okay, but if we'd face mass starvation, I'm pretty sure that everybody would agree that we can't keep going. Of course, that's unlikely, but let's not pretend that there's some (sane) group of people out there, that actually say "under no circumstances may any life be put in danger, ever".
    - apatters 7y ago
      It is simply incredible that you've reduced the argument for lifting lockdowns to "getting a mocha latte grande whatever." I have never seen an argument made in such bad faith before. The US has just suffered its largest job losses in history. The people who lost these jobs skew heavily toward lower income brackets and little or no savings. The losses are still growing. How can you say something like this with a straight face?
      - luckylion 7y ago
        > It is simply incredible that you've reduced the argument for lifting lockdowns to "getting a mocha latte grande whatever." I have never seen an argument made in such bad faith before. It's meant to be the worst possible reason to end the lock down, with "otherwise everybody dies" being the best possible reason. Everybody falls somewhere between these extremes. I just wanted to make clear that there is no sane position that responds to the worst possible circumstances by saying "lives must not be lost because of Covid-19, but I'm fine with them being lost because of our reaction to Covid-19". My personal opinion is somewhat close to yours, I believe. I'm aware that a massively shrinking economy has severe real world consequences.
oezi 7y ago
Contact tracing and testing continues to be abysmal. Friends had 15 minute contact to a person which was identified as positive 1 day later. Took 5 days for them to receive their test result taken on the day after notification.
- makomk 7y ago
  In Germany? You have probably the biggest, best coronavirus testing program out there right now. Your program is the one that our press in the UK always points at in order to convince us that our government has failed us on testing. (Not all of their comparisons are actually true, but that's another topic.)
  - corty 7y ago
    I guess the real facts will only be known in the years after the crisis. Currently everyone is very much in propaganda&blame mode. I wouldn't trust any such comparison. For example two weeks ago the RKI "accidentially" reported a 30% rise in testing. Later they admitted no rise and a clerical error... Truth is, Germany currently has around 50% of its testing capacity unused because the bureaucracy still behaves as if tests were precious or just doesn't get around to issuing testing papers fast enough. And they still don't work in the weekends...
- IfOnlyYouKnew 7y ago
  While not perfect, it's the notification that needs to be fast. After that, you're expected to isolate for two weeks no matter what, because any test wouldn't necessarily detect an infection if it's still in the earliest stages.

101404 7y ago

No, on the contrary. Germany has about 4 times as many ICU units as France, Italy or the UK. That's why we had so low fatality numbers, because hospitals never even got significantly above 50% capacity.

sitic 7y ago

This map [1] shows intensive care beds utilization is at 60% of capacity on average in Germany currently. In my local hospital they are starting to do elective treatments again, but are required to hold free 20% of regular beds, 25% of intensive care beds and have to be able to free up further 20% of beds within 72 hours if necessary. They are doing a PCR test for every patient admitted to the hospital (since April 6) and starting from Monday will test every admitted patient three times every week. [1] https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-deutschland-intensiv-betten-monitor-krankenhaus-auslastung/ https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-deutschland-intensiv...