5 ms·

How can infection rate already increase if lockdown measures only eased less than a week ago and the incubation time is about a week?

maxerickson 6y ago
Incubation time (from exposure to symptoms) can be 2 or 3 days and the median is probably closer to 5 days than 7.
elliekelly 6y ago
I’m slowly coming to the conclusion that government “lockdowns” and “reopenings” are lagging instructions for what many people had already been doing. By the time shelter in place orders were signed by governors many of us (who were fortunate enough to be able) had already been socially distancing. I remember seeing a thread on HN of MTA data that showed ridership dropping off significantly in the first and second week of March. At that point De Blasio was still encouraging NYC to go about business as usual. Likewise, by the time governments officially started easing restrictions many people had grown weary of long-term social distancing and the weather started getting nicer so people started venturing out more than they had been.
skummetmaelk 6y ago
Average incubation time is 5-6 days so one would expect the results of lifting restrictions last Monday to start showing about now.
flohofwoe 6y ago
People are already infectious much earlier (2..3 days I think?). Also people already started to take the restrictions less seriously quite a bit earlier than the official relaxations. And the lockdown was never very strict in Germany in the first place. Some types of businesses had to close, but people could go outside "for no particular reasons", just keep a distance to people not in your own household and if possible don't travel across Germany. And finally, AFAIK the RKI "infection rate computation" is based at least partly on predictive models. PS: The actual lockdown rules differed slightly across the German federal states. I think at least Bavaria had stricter rules then what I described, which makes sense because they've been hit harder.
- luckylion 6y ago
  > Also people already started to take the restrictions less seriously quite a bit earlier than the official relaxations. The regulations where eased on some issues, but stricter requirements were introduced in other place, e.g. masks were made mandatory in public transport, super markets in most (all?) states etc.
  - lbeltrame 6y ago
    Is distance between people enforced on public transport? Again, I'm trying to compare measures from other countries to my own.
    - luckylion 6y ago
      I don't know, I rarely use public transport, I take my bike everywhere. The few trains and buses I've seen in passing weren't having many passengers, so they were spread out.
    - flohofwoe 6y ago
      You have to wear a simple mask now on public transport and when shopping. This is in addition to keeping distance, but I don't know if it's actually enforced on trains (in shops, yes). Typically there are warning signs with the rules at the door (wear a mask, keep at least 1.5m distance).
      - lbeltrame 6y ago
        In my city public transportation has taken a big hit because with the rules in place trains and buses can only carry 30% of the usual passenger load even with full system capacity.
jaynetics 6y ago
The first minor easing was weeks ago. People started to ignore other rules that were expected to get dropped, and police stopped enforcing them (at least outside of the more conservative and more severely affected South).

maxerickson 6y ago

Incubation time (from exposure to symptoms) can be 2 or 3 days and the median is probably closer to 5 days than 7.

elliekelly 6y ago

I’m slowly coming to the conclusion that government “lockdowns” and “reopenings” are lagging instructions for what many people had already been doing. By the time shelter in place orders were signed by governors many of us (who were fortunate enough to be able) had already been socially distancing. I remember seeing a thread on HN of MTA data that showed ridership dropping off significantly in the first and second week of March. At that point De Blasio was still encouraging NYC to go about business as usual. Likewise, by the time governments officially started easing restrictions many people had grown weary of long-term social distancing and the weather started getting nicer so people started venturing out more than they had been.

skummetmaelk 6y ago

Average incubation time is 5-6 days so one would expect the results of lifting restrictions last Monday to start showing about now.

flohofwoe 6y ago

People are already infectious much earlier (2..3 days I think?). Also people already started to take the restrictions less seriously quite a bit earlier than the official relaxations. And the lockdown was never very strict in Germany in the first place. Some types of businesses had to close, but people could go outside "for no particular reasons", just keep a distance to people not in your own household and if possible don't travel across Germany. And finally, AFAIK the RKI "infection rate computation" is based at least partly on predictive models. PS: The actual lockdown rules differed slightly across the German federal states. I think at least Bavaria had stricter rules then what I described, which makes sense because they've been hit harder.

luckylion 6y ago
> Also people already started to take the restrictions less seriously quite a bit earlier than the official relaxations. The regulations where eased on some issues, but stricter requirements were introduced in other place, e.g. masks were made mandatory in public transport, super markets in most (all?) states etc.
- lbeltrame 6y ago
  Is distance between people enforced on public transport? Again, I'm trying to compare measures from other countries to my own.
  - luckylion 6y ago
    I don't know, I rarely use public transport, I take my bike everywhere. The few trains and buses I've seen in passing weren't having many passengers, so they were spread out.
  - flohofwoe 6y ago
    You have to wear a simple mask now on public transport and when shopping. This is in addition to keeping distance, but I don't know if it's actually enforced on trains (in shops, yes). Typically there are warning signs with the rules at the door (wear a mask, keep at least 1.5m distance).
    - lbeltrame 6y ago
      In my city public transportation has taken a big hit because with the rules in place trains and buses can only carry 30% of the usual passenger load even with full system capacity.

jaynetics 6y ago

The first minor easing was weeks ago. People started to ignore other rules that were expected to get dropped, and police stopped enforcing them (at least outside of the more conservative and more severely affected South).