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I agree. I think a lot of these probability puzzles end up being "illusions of emphasis", ie., that we fail to grasp the problem because how components of it ar
by mjburgess 7y ago
I agree. I think a lot of these probability puzzles end up being "illusions of emphasis", ie., that we fail to grasp the problem because how components of it are expressed in language.
When the host opens the door and why need to be repeated several times and with lots of emphasis before asking the question. These ordinarily minor details are extraordinarily relevant, and the language used should express that.
- Rerarom 7y agoYes, because if the problem was expressed purely formally from the start, there could not possibly be any controversy. The appeal of Monty Hall is precisely this interplay of natural and formal language.
- daveFNbuck 7y agoPeople aren't generally very good at probability. Plenty of people get it wrong despite understanding the puzzle correctly.