No it's not; it's based on this paper, http://www.stoptb.org/assets/documents/news/Modeling%20Report_1%20May%202020_FINAL.pdf http://www.stoptb.org/assets/docum

No it's not; it's based on this paper, http://www.stoptb.org/assets/documents/news/Modeling%20Report_1%20May%202020_FINAL.pdf http://www.stoptb.org/assets/documents/news/Modeling%20Repor... which models how our COVID-19 response will affect new TB cases. "SUMMARY  While stringent COVID-19 responses may only last months, they would have a lasting impact on TB in high-burden settings, through their effect mainly on TB diagnosis and treatment.  Globally, a 3-month lockdown and a protracted 10-month restoration could lead to an additional 6.3 million cases of TB between 2020 and 2025, and an additional 1.4 million TB deaths during this time.  As such, global TB incidence and deaths in 2021 would increase to levels last seen in between 2013 and 2016 respectively – implying a setback of at least 5 to 8 years in the fight against TB, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Long-term outcomes can be strongly influenced by the pace of short-term recovery.  Each month taken to return to normal TB services would incur, in India, an additional 40,685 deaths between 2020 and 2025; in Kenya, an additional 1,157 deaths; and in Ukraine, an additional 137 deaths over this period  To recover the gains made over last years through increased efforts and investments in TB, it is important to have supplementary measures and resources to reduce the accumulated pool of undetected people with TB. Such measures may include ramped-up active case-finding, alongside intensive community engagement and contact tracing to maintain awareness of the importance of recognizing and responding to symptoms suggestive of TB, using digital technology and other tools. Securing access to an uninterrupted supply of quality assured treatment and care for every single person with TB will be essential. Notifications will provide a helpful approach for monitoring the progress of such supplementary efforts."