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> I admire Buffet and Munger, but the guys are 90 years old, Well, then you need to tell me your age, to know whether I should care about what you have written

> I admire Buffet and Munger, but the guys are 90 years old, Well, then you need to tell me your age, to know whether I should care about what you have written above.

toomuchtodo 6y ago
Not OP, but mid 30s and I’m getting a bit tired of folks who are out of touch because of their age believing their past experience can extrapolate a future they don’t understand (Buffett in particular has done a very poor job understanding and investing in tech). It’s terribly ironic that they think Musk is just lucky considering Munger and Buffett were able to invest during one of the most prosperous times in American history. Admit you’re passed your prime and move on. Make way for innovators instead of valuing reading a 10-K and preferring conservative companies you believe are undervalued, or distressed companies you’re going to try to twist their arm into a deal (as Buffett did during the GFC with banks).
- rdgthree 6y ago
  Your comment and OP's comment are a bit silly given the context. Munger didn't say anything controversial here. He was asked a question about Elon and answered by saying he prefers less risk. He specifically pointed out that Elon shouldn't be underestimated while saying it. Elon doesn't just like to take risks, he would probably agree with being described as "risk obsessed". If your investment strategy is risk aversion and stability, you should avoid Elon. That isn't an outdated perspective, nor is it arrogant in any way - Elon would probably agree with it. The last sentence was an exaggeration of his bias when evaluating any operator to drive his point home clearly. It's fairly difficult to imagine that Charlie Munger thinks Elon Musk has just gotten lucky for his entire career, and unsurprisingly he isn't saying that in this example. I'm all for fairly criticizing out-of-touch arrogance, but I can't see it being the case here.
- PostOnce 6y ago
  We'll have to see how many tech companies survive the coming depression before we can determine whether the long game at Berkshire is wrong or not :) Indeed, we'll see if Tesla survives, not only the coincidental depression, but also the multi-hundred-billion-dollar war chest being leveraged against them by the other car companies with a century more experience each, more connections, and broader reach. It's a bit early to be calling the game is all.
  - rdgthree 6y ago
    Well said. I'm a huge fan of Elon and Tesla and am optimistic about their future, but Munger's approach here is incredibly reasonable. I would love to see Tesla succeed, but I also know that I'd hesitate quite a bit to bet billions of dollars on their success.
- devin 6y ago
  I'm mid-30s and I'm equally tired of people without a whole lot of experience assuming they understand more about the world than they do.
- fxtentacle 6y ago
  "Admit you’re passed your prime and move on." sounds like something a junior programmer would say before suggesting something hip but incredibly stupid. Like reimplementing a distributed multithreaded C++ processing cluster in NodeJS to make the codebase more accessible. Or like those fashionable people that try to replace a grep shell script with a multi-node ElasticSearch cluster in the cloud, at only 100x the operating costs. The knowledge that novel does not equal unquestionably good ages extremely well. The "innovator" of today may well be a "debunked hype" by tomorrow.
- m463 6y ago
  I recently listened to a podcast and it had an interesting thought that has kept me wondering. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Chesterton%27s_fence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Chesterton%27s_fence (this page seems a little more biased than I remember in favor of a conservative viewpoint) I wonder if in 6 months opening a business quickly will seem prescient, or will it have been a disaster? What I actually think Musk should do is do what he's done well before, "science the shit out of it". Figure out how to move forward without killing someone (in a rocket accident or a covid accident)
- seppin 6y ago
  > believing their past experience can extrapolate a future they don’t understand Imagine thinking anyone knows what will happen in the future.
  - ben_w 6y ago
    I think that’s the point of having a brain at all — to predict the future better than a dice roll would’ve.
    - seppin 6y ago
      I wouldn't call guessing with slightly better odds than a coin flip "extrapolating the future". Do continue ignoring all the massive failures and continuous capital / opportunity these supposed kingmakers have.
      - ben_w 6y ago
        If two chess players of equal skill play a match, the result is a coin flip. That doesn’t mean they don’t know what they’re doing. With one exception that I know of, share prices are the average over all estimates of future earnings. The exception is: When investors just follow the leader instead of producing their own price estimates, you get bubbles.
        seppin 6y ago
        > If two chess players of equal skill play a match, the result is a coin flip. That doesn’t mean they don’t know what they’re doing. No, but it does mean they aren't any more skilled than anyone else on the same level. They surely cannot know what will happen next any better.
- slavik81 6y ago
  Warren Buffett's stance on technology companies has historically been that he doesn't understand them, and thus he doesn't invest in them. Where are you getting this idea that he thinks he knows them better than other people?

> I admire Buffet and Munger, but the guys are 90 years old, Well, then you need to tell me your age, to know whether I should care about what you have written above.

toomuchtodo 6y ago

Not OP, but mid 30s and I’m getting a bit tired of folks who are out of touch because of their age believing their past experience can extrapolate a future they don’t understand (Buffett in particular has done a very poor job understanding and investing in tech). It’s terribly ironic that they think Musk is just lucky considering Munger and Buffett were able to invest during one of the most prosperous times in American history. Admit you’re passed your prime and move on. Make way for innovators instead of valuing reading a 10-K and preferring conservative companies you believe are undervalued, or distressed companies you’re going to try to twist their arm into a deal (as Buffett did during the GFC with banks).

rdgthree 6y ago
Your comment and OP's comment are a bit silly given the context. Munger didn't say anything controversial here. He was asked a question about Elon and answered by saying he prefers less risk. He specifically pointed out that Elon shouldn't be underestimated while saying it. Elon doesn't just like to take risks, he would probably agree with being described as "risk obsessed". If your investment strategy is risk aversion and stability, you should avoid Elon. That isn't an outdated perspective, nor is it arrogant in any way - Elon would probably agree with it. The last sentence was an exaggeration of his bias when evaluating any operator to drive his point home clearly. It's fairly difficult to imagine that Charlie Munger thinks Elon Musk has just gotten lucky for his entire career, and unsurprisingly he isn't saying that in this example. I'm all for fairly criticizing out-of-touch arrogance, but I can't see it being the case here.
PostOnce 6y ago
We'll have to see how many tech companies survive the coming depression before we can determine whether the long game at Berkshire is wrong or not :) Indeed, we'll see if Tesla survives, not only the coincidental depression, but also the multi-hundred-billion-dollar war chest being leveraged against them by the other car companies with a century more experience each, more connections, and broader reach. It's a bit early to be calling the game is all.
- rdgthree 6y ago
  Well said. I'm a huge fan of Elon and Tesla and am optimistic about their future, but Munger's approach here is incredibly reasonable. I would love to see Tesla succeed, but I also know that I'd hesitate quite a bit to bet billions of dollars on their success.
devin 6y ago
I'm mid-30s and I'm equally tired of people without a whole lot of experience assuming they understand more about the world than they do.
fxtentacle 6y ago
"Admit you’re passed your prime and move on." sounds like something a junior programmer would say before suggesting something hip but incredibly stupid. Like reimplementing a distributed multithreaded C++ processing cluster in NodeJS to make the codebase more accessible. Or like those fashionable people that try to replace a grep shell script with a multi-node ElasticSearch cluster in the cloud, at only 100x the operating costs. The knowledge that novel does not equal unquestionably good ages extremely well. The "innovator" of today may well be a "debunked hype" by tomorrow.
m463 6y ago
I recently listened to a podcast and it had an interesting thought that has kept me wondering. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Chesterton%27s_fence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Chesterton%27s_fence (this page seems a little more biased than I remember in favor of a conservative viewpoint) I wonder if in 6 months opening a business quickly will seem prescient, or will it have been a disaster? What I actually think Musk should do is do what he's done well before, "science the shit out of it". Figure out how to move forward without killing someone (in a rocket accident or a covid accident)
seppin 6y ago
> believing their past experience can extrapolate a future they don’t understand Imagine thinking anyone knows what will happen in the future.
- ben_w 6y ago
  I think that’s the point of having a brain at all — to predict the future better than a dice roll would’ve.
  - seppin 6y ago
    I wouldn't call guessing with slightly better odds than a coin flip "extrapolating the future". Do continue ignoring all the massive failures and continuous capital / opportunity these supposed kingmakers have.
    - ben_w 6y ago
      If two chess players of equal skill play a match, the result is a coin flip. That doesn’t mean they don’t know what they’re doing. With one exception that I know of, share prices are the average over all estimates of future earnings. The exception is: When investors just follow the leader instead of producing their own price estimates, you get bubbles.
      - seppin 6y ago
        > If two chess players of equal skill play a match, the result is a coin flip. That doesn’t mean they don’t know what they’re doing. No, but it does mean they aren't any more skilled than anyone else on the same level. They surely cannot know what will happen next any better.
slavik81 6y ago
Warren Buffett's stance on technology companies has historically been that he doesn't understand them, and thus he doesn't invest in them. Where are you getting this idea that he thinks he knows them better than other people?