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I've often wondered about "rigged" games. Wouldn't there be a predictable arbitrage effect? I guess it would depend how frequent the rigged outcomes are... bu

I've often wondered about "rigged" games. Wouldn't there be a predictable arbitrage effect? I guess it would depend how frequent the rigged outcomes are... but if they were frequent enough, you could probably develop an edge by assuming that the odds were a bit different than they actually are. I'd think a typical fix would be on an upset, so, for example, the 3:1 event is actually a bit likelier than you'd think given the available information. If that's often enough to counteract the house cut, you could make money. ...Alternatively, I'd think it's possible a NN might be able to spot patterns in the riggers strategies. Particularly if you did some clever data mining to try and get some information on extended social networks of competitors.

selectodude 6y ago
There's only a predictable effect if you know what part is rigged. Normally bettors who have an "edge" don't just pick a team outright, they engage in point shaving or other assorted fuckery and don't make their large bets until the last minute. It's not going to be a referee being obvious, it's going to be a bought off official handing out a cheap penalty given late in the game to bring the score from 2 goals to one when the spread is 1.5.
hogFeast 6y ago
Yep, I could give you the big spiel but all I know is that: I make money betting on things that are priced poorly, I can't price something that is rigged, and people who have more money than me don't bet on sports that are known to be rigged (i.e. low-ranking tennis, African football, etc.). Even if you did look at the odds and find out that, for example, underdogs hit more often...I wouldn't bet it. You would probably have trouble getting your money down, sometimes you would get voided...it just isn't worth it. Also, your reasoning about the odds being high isn't necessarily correct. That is kind of first-level thinking but...if you think about it...you should realise why, if you were rigging games, you would (probably) make more money rigging even/favourites...although it would depend (in some sports where rigging is very very common, I believe it is far less common for favourites to be paid to throw).

selectodude 6y ago

There's only a predictable effect if you know what part is rigged. Normally bettors who have an "edge" don't just pick a team outright, they engage in point shaving or other assorted fuckery and don't make their large bets until the last minute. It's not going to be a referee being obvious, it's going to be a bought off official handing out a cheap penalty given late in the game to bring the score from 2 goals to one when the spread is 1.5.

hogFeast 6y ago

Yep, I could give you the big spiel but all I know is that: I make money betting on things that are priced poorly, I can't price something that is rigged, and people who have more money than me don't bet on sports that are known to be rigged (i.e. low-ranking tennis, African football, etc.). Even if you did look at the odds and find out that, for example, underdogs hit more often...I wouldn't bet it. You would probably have trouble getting your money down, sometimes you would get voided...it just isn't worth it. Also, your reasoning about the odds being high isn't necessarily correct. That is kind of first-level thinking but...if you think about it...you should realise why, if you were rigging games, you would (probably) make more money rigging even/favourites...although it would depend (in some sports where rigging is very very common, I believe it is far less common for favourites to be paid to throw).