3 ms·

>These conditions, nearing or beyond prolonged human physiological tolerance, have mostly occurred only for 1- to 2-hours’ duration (fig. S2). They are concentr

>These conditions, nearing or beyond prolonged human physiological tolerance, have mostly occurred only for 1- to 2-hours’ duration (fig. S2). They are concentrated in South Asia, the coastal Middle East, and coastal southwest North America, in close proximity to extraordinarily high SSTs and intense continental heat that together favor the occurrence of extreme humid heat (2, 14). Future Indian geopolitics is certainly going to be interesting. Would like to see these hotspots mapped for the next 20-30 years to highlight the scope of the situation. Will certain areas become perennially uninhabitable? Is it a matter of having AC / low humidity shelters that people flock to a couple hours a day during seasonal peaks? Estimates on climate refugees and migration patterns etc. I suspect it's going to be onerous but workable. There's low energy dehumidifying HVAC solutions that might be attainable even in poorer communities. Ultimately, petro rich countries like middle East and North America is going to be fine and AC through the solution if they have to, aggravating the problem for everyone else. Regardless, it's a problem worth mitigating and acclimatizing to, 85% of the world is seeking to develop and will do so via the most cost-efficient (currently dirty) methods possible. IMO, accommodating for this is a greater moral imperative that's ultimately incompatible with aggregate reduction in emissions - that was never workable. Developed countries should still strive to improve efficient and innovate to flatten the environmental cost curve per unit of quality of improvement, and modify their life styles so that rampant consumptive culture is not the aspired endpoint. But that's even harder said then done because capitalism.

abdullahkhalids 7y ago
Honestly, the entire urban belt from Islamabad to Delhi is one of the densest parts of the world, and further urbanizing as we speak. I think it will be the hardest hit, with the amount of concrete that is being poured and cars bought without regards to the local climate.
- dirtyid 7y ago
  Reminds me of the infographic "over half the world lives in this circle", the circle containing countries in the region of China, India and ASEAN. All on or near equator. All countries in a position to develop rapidly short-term. India/Bangladesh/Pakistan/continental ASEAN corridors are prime waterwars candidates. The only saving grace of island ASEAN is they're geographically constrained from massive conflict and migration. There's a lot of zero-sum resource competition in the area which doesn't bode well.
blueblisters 7y ago
Many parts of South Asia already have home-grown solutions to battle the heat. The rise of cheap construction without consideration for local climate conditions have made them less prevalent. For example, in Jaipur, traditional stepwells dug under houses absorb a lot of the mid-day summer heat. With some engineering, these can be scaled up to cool entire neighborhoods with energy efficient geothermal heat pumps [1]. It's easy to be all doom and gloom about climate change. But some mitigations are staring at us in the face. Others will take a while to become usable/cheap enough to be deployed at scale. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_heat_pump https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_heat_pump
- dirtyid 7y ago
  It really depends on if prospective climate change is something that has prior solutions that can be adapted for modern land use and urban demands. There's always been historically appropriate architectural typologies to manage regional climate, but also massive enough climate shifts that cause entire regions to be abandoned. Typically it's water shortage, which can be a zero-sum problem, India/Pakistan, Egypt/Ethiopia, China and all of Mekong etc. But yeah, I think inhospitable heat and humidity in this study is largely... technically and economically solvable with building interventions, both historic and speculative. There's already many societies that's dependent on conditioned air at scale, but very few on desalinating water at scale.

abdullahkhalids 7y ago

Honestly, the entire urban belt from Islamabad to Delhi is one of the densest parts of the world, and further urbanizing as we speak. I think it will be the hardest hit, with the amount of concrete that is being poured and cars bought without regards to the local climate.

dirtyid 7y ago
Reminds me of the infographic "over half the world lives in this circle", the circle containing countries in the region of China, India and ASEAN. All on or near equator. All countries in a position to develop rapidly short-term. India/Bangladesh/Pakistan/continental ASEAN corridors are prime waterwars candidates. The only saving grace of island ASEAN is they're geographically constrained from massive conflict and migration. There's a lot of zero-sum resource competition in the area which doesn't bode well.

blueblisters 7y ago

Many parts of South Asia already have home-grown solutions to battle the heat. The rise of cheap construction without consideration for local climate conditions have made them less prevalent. For example, in Jaipur, traditional stepwells dug under houses absorb a lot of the mid-day summer heat. With some engineering, these can be scaled up to cool entire neighborhoods with energy efficient geothermal heat pumps [1]. It's easy to be all doom and gloom about climate change. But some mitigations are staring at us in the face. Others will take a while to become usable/cheap enough to be deployed at scale. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_heat_pump https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_heat_pump

dirtyid 7y ago
It really depends on if prospective climate change is something that has prior solutions that can be adapted for modern land use and urban demands. There's always been historically appropriate architectural typologies to manage regional climate, but also massive enough climate shifts that cause entire regions to be abandoned. Typically it's water shortage, which can be a zero-sum problem, India/Pakistan, Egypt/Ethiopia, China and all of Mekong etc. But yeah, I think inhospitable heat and humidity in this study is largely... technically and economically solvable with building interventions, both historic and speculative. There's already many societies that's dependent on conditioned air at scale, but very few on desalinating water at scale.