5 ms·

The World of Sports Betting in a World Without Sports

ckdarby 6y ago
I wonder if there has been a surge in esports betting instead?
- kevinwang 6y ago
  Oh shit I just realized this is probably a contributing factor to a phenomenon I noticed recently watching smaller dota tournaments: twitch chat was >50% (sometimes 90%) composed of sports bettors discussing lines and predictions instead of the games, which I'd never seen before. Also could be that I'm just watching more small tournaments than I usually would though
  - hogFeast 6y ago
    Yes, this is occurring. But it is probably a bit less than you think. CS:GO is definitely up, FIFA is up very big (even the rigged Russian tournaments) but everything else is probably only up small because they are so hard to watch. You can watch CS and understand what is going on...Overwatch is still baffling.
  - Mengkudulangsat 6y ago
    Absolutely! One org (cyber tractor) was even disqualified recently for match fixing. Dota is unique in that the professional scene is subsidized by fans through Battle Pass, however the distribution of that resource was so lopsided, betting companies are starting to take a hold onto the smaller tournaments.
hogFeast 6y ago
It is very possible to make money betting on the obscure stuff. I am not going to say what exactly but whilst it isn't possible to get the same volume down, it is possible to have a big edge. The craziest one was an event I backed at 2.5 in to 1.2 at closing. I have never seen anything close to this before. Just crazy stuff (that is an edge of 40% i.e. you make 40c every $1 you bet)...but you do have to be willing to do the work. The mistake in the article and that every punter makes is to assume that events with "no information" are bad...but the person setting the odds doesn't have a secret book full of "information" either...the Russian ping pong league is rigged though.
- Enginerrrd 6y ago
  I've often wondered about "rigged" games. Wouldn't there be a predictable arbitrage effect? I guess it would depend how frequent the rigged outcomes are... but if they were frequent enough, you could probably develop an edge by assuming that the odds were a bit different than they actually are. I'd think a typical fix would be on an upset, so, for example, the 3:1 event is actually a bit likelier than you'd think given the available information. If that's often enough to counteract the house cut, you could make money. ...Alternatively, I'd think it's possible a NN might be able to spot patterns in the riggers strategies. Particularly if you did some clever data mining to try and get some information on extended social networks of competitors.
  - selectodude 6y ago
    There's only a predictable effect if you know what part is rigged. Normally bettors who have an "edge" don't just pick a team outright, they engage in point shaving or other assorted fuckery and don't make their large bets until the last minute. It's not going to be a referee being obvious, it's going to be a bought off official handing out a cheap penalty given late in the game to bring the score from 2 goals to one when the spread is 1.5.
  - hogFeast 6y ago
    Yep, I could give you the big spiel but all I know is that: I make money betting on things that are priced poorly, I can't price something that is rigged, and people who have more money than me don't bet on sports that are known to be rigged (i.e. low-ranking tennis, African football, etc.). Even if you did look at the odds and find out that, for example, underdogs hit more often...I wouldn't bet it. You would probably have trouble getting your money down, sometimes you would get voided...it just isn't worth it. Also, your reasoning about the odds being high isn't necessarily correct. That is kind of first-level thinking but...if you think about it...you should realise why, if you were rigging games, you would (probably) make more money rigging even/favourites...although it would depend (in some sports where rigging is very very common, I believe it is far less common for favourites to be paid to throw).
- zapatos 6y ago
Jeaye 6y ago
For those interested in betting on esports, there's been a lot of activity in the space recently. My startup, OkLetsPlay [1], partnered with Intel and Overwolf, takes a patented approach to providing a seamless experience from betting to playing. Note, we focus on players betting on their own skill in games, not betting on others. Legally, there's a key difference here. 1. https://okletsplay.com/ https://okletsplay.com/
- algo_trader 6y ago
  Have you been pitching this to investors? What is the reaction? Do they focus on market/growth or are they all about compliance issues ?

I wonder if there has been a surge in esports betting instead?

kevinwang 6y ago
Oh shit I just realized this is probably a contributing factor to a phenomenon I noticed recently watching smaller dota tournaments: twitch chat was >50% (sometimes 90%) composed of sports bettors discussing lines and predictions instead of the games, which I'd never seen before. Also could be that I'm just watching more small tournaments than I usually would though
- hogFeast 6y ago
  Yes, this is occurring. But it is probably a bit less than you think. CS:GO is definitely up, FIFA is up very big (even the rigged Russian tournaments) but everything else is probably only up small because they are so hard to watch. You can watch CS and understand what is going on...Overwatch is still baffling.
- Mengkudulangsat 6y ago
  Absolutely! One org (cyber tractor) was even disqualified recently for match fixing. Dota is unique in that the professional scene is subsidized by fans through Battle Pass, however the distribution of that resource was so lopsided, betting companies are starting to take a hold onto the smaller tournaments.

It is very possible to make money betting on the obscure stuff. I am not going to say what exactly but whilst it isn't possible to get the same volume down, it is possible to have a big edge. The craziest one was an event I backed at 2.5 in to 1.2 at closing. I have never seen anything close to this before. Just crazy stuff (that is an edge of 40% i.e. you make 40c every $1 you bet)...but you do have to be willing to do the work. The mistake in the article and that every punter makes is to assume that events with "no information" are bad...but the person setting the odds doesn't have a secret book full of "information" either...the Russian ping pong league is rigged though.

Enginerrrd 6y ago
I've often wondered about "rigged" games. Wouldn't there be a predictable arbitrage effect? I guess it would depend how frequent the rigged outcomes are... but if they were frequent enough, you could probably develop an edge by assuming that the odds were a bit different than they actually are. I'd think a typical fix would be on an upset, so, for example, the 3:1 event is actually a bit likelier than you'd think given the available information. If that's often enough to counteract the house cut, you could make money. ...Alternatively, I'd think it's possible a NN might be able to spot patterns in the riggers strategies. Particularly if you did some clever data mining to try and get some information on extended social networks of competitors.
- selectodude 6y ago
  There's only a predictable effect if you know what part is rigged. Normally bettors who have an "edge" don't just pick a team outright, they engage in point shaving or other assorted fuckery and don't make their large bets until the last minute. It's not going to be a referee being obvious, it's going to be a bought off official handing out a cheap penalty given late in the game to bring the score from 2 goals to one when the spread is 1.5.
- hogFeast 6y ago
  Yep, I could give you the big spiel but all I know is that: I make money betting on things that are priced poorly, I can't price something that is rigged, and people who have more money than me don't bet on sports that are known to be rigged (i.e. low-ranking tennis, African football, etc.). Even if you did look at the odds and find out that, for example, underdogs hit more often...I wouldn't bet it. You would probably have trouble getting your money down, sometimes you would get voided...it just isn't worth it. Also, your reasoning about the odds being high isn't necessarily correct. That is kind of first-level thinking but...if you think about it...you should realise why, if you were rigging games, you would (probably) make more money rigging even/favourites...although it would depend (in some sports where rigging is very very common, I believe it is far less common for favourites to be paid to throw).
zapatos 6y ago

Jeaye 6y ago

For those interested in betting on esports, there's been a lot of activity in the space recently. My startup, OkLetsPlay [1], partnered with Intel and Overwolf, takes a patented approach to providing a seamless experience from betting to playing. Note, we focus on players betting on their own skill in games, not betting on others. Legally, there's a key difference here. 1. https://okletsplay.com/ https://okletsplay.com/

algo_trader 6y ago
Have you been pitching this to investors? What is the reaction? Do they focus on market/growth or are they all about compliance issues ?