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The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance
- skohan 6y agoI have to say when I took an extended layover in Doah it gave me a different sense of urgency about climate change. It was just oppressive to be outside, even during the night and they air-condition their open air markets. It got me thinking that there are a lot of places like this which are probably on the edge, and where a few degrees of warming will make them simply uninhabitable to humans. It would be a strange thing to have "hot zones" like we have arctic regions where it's not possible to go without special equipment.
- gonzo41 6y agoNow is the time to buy a flat-ish block of land in Alaska or Tasmania that's a little back from the waters edge. Also make sure you don't have too many tree's too close to where you want to build your doomsday cabin. :) Really you don't be between the tropics of Cancer of Capricorn. in the future
- johnchristopher 6y agoWhen I think about such scenarios I can't help thinking that there might not be any social constructs left to enforce ownership of land :/. When I was a teen I was sure we were headed for a bad future if we didn't act but I always thought it'd come after I am dead. Now I am scared I am going to be old and too frail to manage when life on earth will turn sour. edit: maybe it's time we put out a a Pioneer 10 plate with messages of warning about our own failures. One we send to space, another one we leave on earth.
- LifeLiverTransp 6y agoLets make it a decent grave candle. A Lighttower in space. We start with something like hubble, capable to percieve planets by observation. We put the message into a laser encoded and shine it on planets in habitable zones of diffrent star systems, tracking the planet. If all works right, there should be giant discs of flickering light, racing with rotation speed over cloudy sky, broadcasting our history and warning. The ufos were we all along.
- qqssccfftt 6y ago> When I think about such scenarios I can't help thinking that there might not be any social constructs left to enforce ownership of land :/. I can only hope so.
- skohan 6y agoHow do you imagine that working in practice? I mean I'm not saying the current structure is perfect, but if everyone had equal claim to land it seems like land usage disputes would just end up being resolved through violence
- afandian 6y agoThis is the current model. In many places the violence may be out of living memory, but it's generally all very recent.
- catawbasam 6y agoIf it is out of living memory it isn't current.
- afandian 6y agoIf the model establishes a system where the people who are prepared to use the most violence end up with the land, and a couple of generations their descendants still have the land, then IMHO the model is still in play. You could also argue that as the ownership is codified in laws and the state monopoly on violence keeps the oppressed in check, that threat of violence continues.
- fsloth 6y ago"If the model establishes a system where the people who are prepared to use the most violence end up with the land, and a couple of generations their descendants still have the land, then IMHO the model is still in play." This is not about land ownership. Alone. You are talking about exclusive political and economic systems. In an exclusive system it's not just the ownership of land that is broken - you will find all economic activity is rigged against some segment of the society. Most well to do states are have inclusive political and and economic systems. In these societies land ownership is based on land registration and enforceable contract law - not entitlement of birth and violence. I warmly recommend Daron Acemoglu's "Why nations fail" as it explains this topic far better than I ever could in a few sentences.
- solids 6y agoI hope private ownership will remain the same, given the fact that climate change is gradual enough to keep the status quo (which is also a huge downside that prevents humanity in taking coordinate and efficient actions against it)
- crishoj 6y agoNow is the time to aggressively pursue reforestation, especially in the tropics.
- coribuci 6y ago> Now is the time to aggressively pursue reforestation, especially in the tropics. Now it's already too late. And anyway, the only thing that is aggressively pursued in the tropics is war which has a catastrofic effect on the environment.
- angry-sw-dev 6y agoAlaska might end up seasonally uninhabitable -- they have periods of the year where the sun doesn't set, with increased greenhouse gases in the area it could become intensely hot for periods of the year. Combine that with periodic ozone holes that appear over arctic areas and it might be just as nasty as areas we worry over today... Areas near large bodies of stable fresh water are likely going to be livable for the longest periods as the planet rapidly shifts away from what we humans need.
- vwcx 6y agoRe: Alaska, beavers are already getting there first and exasperating the climate effects upon the tundra. A fascinating read: https://alaskatrekker.com/2017/11/beavers-moving-northern-alaska-due-climate-change/ https://alaskatrekker.com/2017/11/beavers-moving-northern-al...
- dredmorbius 6y agos/exasperating/exacerbating/ ;-)
- vwcx 6y agoThanks. I'm getting slopping here in the house with only a single conversation partner most days!
- warranty 6y agoYou mean Doha, Qatar?
- dweekly 6y agoI'm assuming by Doah you meant Doha, Qatar?
- r721 6y agoRelated feature piece: >What It’s Like Living in One of the Hottest Cities on Earth—Where It May Soon Be Uninhabitable https://time.com/longform/jacobabad-extreme-heat/ https://time.com/longform/jacobabad-extreme-heat/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobabad#Climate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobabad#Climate
- jotm 6y agoTemperatures have been rising even further north. I'm near the 47th parallel and there was practically no winter this year. Used to have -20 degC with lots of snow, but alas. Last year's highs were above 40 degC for weeks - unimaginable 20 years ago, and rare 10 years ago. Everyone's getting air conditioners now. For some unexplainable reasons, people still use dark colored roofs - it's time that everyone painted them white or silver, because those A/Cs will just make everything worse in the long term. Most people seem to think it's a temporary thing. They'll believe it until it becomes the new normal I guess.
- Scarblac 6y agoWell it is a temporary thing, the rate of change is still increasing. We'll reach the new normal a number of decades after we stop burning fossil fuel.
- anticensor 6y ago> after we stop burning fossil fuel You mean, when we run out of fossil fuel?
- Scarblac 6y agoWell that's one way, we'll see.
- gambiting 6y agoThat's just not going to happen by any measure. Deposits might become more and more expensive to tap into, but we're not just going to run out. We need to stop using them, not hope that we'll just stop once they are out - they simply won't be.
- asdkjh345fd 6y agoThat is what everyone means when they say "run out of oil". Read it as "run out of oil worth extracting". We're obviously not going to spend 2 TJ of energy to extract oil that contains 1 TJ of energy.
- ganzuul 6y agoThe narrative of combating global warming / climate change is ineffective and it misses the point. The Earth can quite naturally be inhospitable to human life. The narrative needs to be one of terraforming our own planet.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- ArnoVW 6y agoThere are several problems with this approach. The person performing the forming would essentially be cleaning up the polution of everyone else. Terraforming would require global agreement and adherence to a highly capital-intensive enterprise. This is not unlike the discussions about limiting global warming, which are not a frank success. We currently have no means of cleaning up that is more efficient ie less costly) than the methods we gave for limiting pollution. And it is already impossible to get people to accept to pay those costs. That is not to say that it should not be researched. But to propose it as an alternative is not helpful in the current political context. It is akin to saying "yea but we'll win the lottery anyway" when other people are trying to get the community to accept a balancing of the budget.
- ganzuul 6y agoYou do realize the alternative is megadeath, right?
- ArnoVW 6y agoFully agree with you that if we do nothing, we're heading for a world of pain. But I never said we should do nothing. In fact I pointed out we already have other options. Real ones, today, that we know will work. Eat less meat. Drive less and smaller cars. Use less packaging, clothing, etc. Build smaller and better houses, that need less air-conditioning and heating. Put a price on CO2 and let the market figure it out. But no-one likes them. So sure, if we keep sticking our heads in the sand we're heading for megadeaths. Sure, it would be nice if technology could help us get out of this mess without sacrificing our way of life. But the technology does not exist today. And certainly not one that has a better chance of being accepted than the other measures I've already listed.
- perfunctory 6y agoClimate related reports are getting scarier by the day. I am scared. Really scared. Everyone should be. If I may, let me make a little plea. May I remind everyone that we are not a mere spectators of the show. We are active participants. We can influence things. We as in you and I, HN crowd. It may not seem like it, but an average HN reader has a non-trivial amount of influence. And not only in financial sense. Please, use it. I used to urge people to please go and do something about climate. I think the phrasing has to change now. Please! Go out and do everything you possibly can to fight climate change. The future of humanity is in your hands.
- gambiting 6y ago>>I am scared. Really scared. Everyone should be. The thing is, I'm completely oversatured with being scared. This has lead to massive mental issues in the last few years, because everything around us is apocalyptic, even though we live in unimaginable luxury compared to 99.9999% of the rest of the time when humanity existed. I just....can't anymore. >> The future of humanity is in your hands. No, it isn't. At least it doesn't feel like it. Impact of my actions is zero. The only way that a "future of humanity is in my hands" is by either deciding to not have kids, or even better, just killing myself and immediately reducing all my output to zero. Still, on a global scale that amounts to nothing. Watched a good video about this recently - even if all of United Kingdom was wiped off the map and just disappeared overnight, China and US would make up for the reduced polution in about 8 weeks, as both countries emit more and more by the day. And you're telling me the future is in my hands? Right.
- ornornor 6y agoAnd yet we shut down airlines and personal car travel for a month or two and we can measurably see pollution in the air drastically fall.
- netsharc 6y agoIncredible how we react when we might die in 2 weeks instead of 50 years... But the lockdown also shows the problems of shutting down the economy; in developing nations day wagers are starving and dying. In developed nations frothing-in-the-mouth idiots are protesting with their semi-auto weapons.
- finolex1 6y agoColor me optimistic, but we'll learn to survive and adapt. Humans in temperate climates (Chicago, Toronto, etc.) already live in places where it's too cold to survive outside for long in winter. Just replace heaters with ACs in this case.
- chris1993 6y agoFor people who can afford AC and won't be able to go outside
- mirimir 6y agoThere'll likely be refrigerated suits.
- humanrebar 6y agoWe'll call them "cars".
- Izkata 6y agoActual suits already exist: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_cooling_and_ventilation_garment https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_cooling_and_ventilati...
- abdullahkhalids 6y agoHaving lived both in the extreme heat of South Asia and the extreme cold of the Canada, cold is technically a lot easier to deal with physically. Wearing the right clothes will let you survive indefinitely in temperatures as low as -10C. You are also not in danger of dehydration. Note that -10C is -30-35C away from comfortable temperature (20-25C). If you just go +20C from comfortable temperature, no amount of clothing will help you survive for very long out in the open. You also have to drink copious amounts of water and salts to avoid dehydrating to death. Secondly, heating up a closed space is a lot cheaper than cooling it down. Heating can always be done by burning fuel, but cooling greater than 5C requires heat pumps. The economics and practicalities of heat and cold adaptions are completely different.
- kharak 6y agoPersonal anectode. I already can't bear summer. I don't have AC, as most people don't have it here in Switzerland. Even offices tend to not have them. There are 1 to 2 months a year where my productivity sinks, enjoyment of life plummets and I just want it all to be over. I also barely see any snow anymore, if I don't hike in the mountains. I love snow. The change is real and I hate it. Couldn't it be global cooling instead of warming? Damn physics.
- alt_f4 6y agoYou live in an extremely rich country, surely you can afford to install an AC unit if it impacts you as much as you're saying. Seems like that has a much better shot at solving your problem than waiting for the world to address global climate change.
- gswdh 6y agoI’m in the UK and we often have the same problem (a month or two in the summer of unbearable heat) but most companies refuse to spend just for those one/two months.
- _nalply 6y agoYou don't understand Switzerland. More people rent in Switzerland than elsewhere. Switzerland also has an oceanic climate and usually doesn't have hot summers. AC units aren't a thing in Switzerland, however this is changing slowly.
- polotics 6y agoOceanic climate? Not much? No hot summers? Last century, right?
- ornornor 6y agoElectricity is pricey here, and it can be tough to negotiate with your landlord to take the window out and properly secure an ac unit. Besides, offices, shopping malls, gorvernment buildings... none of them usually have ac. I hate walking in my town‘s Rathaus it’s always so hot and stuffy in there. I don’t know how the people working there real with it all summer long. And it’s a brand new building too.
- k33n 6y agoMost of these models will be proven inaccurate. If there’s anything “climate scientists” have demonstrated over the past 100 years or so, it’s that they have little to no understanding of the global climate. Have any of their “predictions” aged well?
- jajag 6y ago> Have any of their “predictions” aged well? No, but only in the sense that they've tended to be too conservative and to understate the degree and pace of change. And just to be clear, the paper linked to is a review of weather station data which finds that extreme heat & humidity conditions are occurring sooner and more frequently than models predicted.
- k33n 6y agoWay off. The vast majority of their doom and gloom claims have been completely disproven. Only the woefully ignorant peddle this stuff. It’s perfectly natural for the weather to be extremely hot and humid sometimes.
- Intermernet 6y agohttps://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-mo... Unless you believe that NASA are in on the whole conspiracy because of, um, some reason I can't even fathom...
- KozmoNau7 6y agoDon't feed the low effort trolls. Downvote, flag and ignore.
- Intermernet 6y agoThe only options available for dealing with misinformed conspiracy theorists are downvoting, flagging, ignoring and rebuttal. The first three are interpreted as validation. It sucks, but that's the reality.
- qqssccfftt 6y agoActually this is probably pointless to post on HN since I doubt anyone here cares about climate change beyond their own personal inconvenience
- ramraj07 6y agoIgnoring call for violence against kids among others, do you really think you'll be able to reach them in their bunkers and islands?
- qqssccfftt 6y agoActually this is probably pointless to post on HN since I doubt anyone here cares about climate change beyond their own personal inconvenience
- asdkjh345fd 6y agoI love how it is normal to threaten death to anyone who doesn't believe in this crazy climate nonsense, but HN bans anyone who points out that the actual raw data shows climate hysteria is entirely unfounded.
- qqssccfftt 6y agoActually this is probably pointless to post on HN since I doubt anyone here cares about climate change beyond their own personal inconvenience
- asdkjh345fd 6y agoTurn the tables on who? The ones threatening death on poor people all the time are the ones threatening death on poor people now.
- qqssccfftt 6y agoActually this is probably pointless to post on HN since I doubt anyone here cares about climate change beyond their own personal inconvenience
- dirtyid 6y ago>These conditions, nearing or beyond prolonged human physiological tolerance, have mostly occurred only for 1- to 2-hours’ duration (fig. S2). They are concentrated in South Asia, the coastal Middle East, and coastal southwest North America, in close proximity to extraordinarily high SSTs and intense continental heat that together favor the occurrence of extreme humid heat (2, 14). Future Indian geopolitics is certainly going to be interesting. Would like to see these hotspots mapped for the next 20-30 years to highlight the scope of the situation. Will certain areas become perennially uninhabitable? Is it a matter of having AC / low humidity shelters that people flock to a couple hours a day during seasonal peaks? Estimates on climate refugees and migration patterns etc. I suspect it's going to be onerous but workable. There's low energy dehumidifying HVAC solutions that might be attainable even in poorer communities. Ultimately, petro rich countries like middle East and North America is going to be fine and AC through the solution if they have to, aggravating the problem for everyone else. Regardless, it's a problem worth mitigating and acclimatizing to, 85% of the world is seeking to develop and will do so via the most cost-efficient (currently dirty) methods possible. IMO, accommodating for this is a greater moral imperative that's ultimately incompatible with aggregate reduction in emissions - that was never workable. Developed countries should still strive to improve efficient and innovate to flatten the environmental cost curve per unit of quality of improvement, and modify their life styles so that rampant consumptive culture is not the aspired endpoint. But that's even harder said then done because capitalism.
- abdullahkhalids 6y agoHonestly, the entire urban belt from Islamabad to Delhi is one of the densest parts of the world, and further urbanizing as we speak. I think it will be the hardest hit, with the amount of concrete that is being poured and cars bought without regards to the local climate.
- dirtyid 6y agoReminds me of the infographic "over half the world lives in this circle", the circle containing countries in the region of China, India and ASEAN. All on or near equator. All countries in a position to develop rapidly short-term. India/Bangladesh/Pakistan/continental ASEAN corridors are prime waterwars candidates. The only saving grace of island ASEAN is they're geographically constrained from massive conflict and migration. There's a lot of zero-sum resource competition in the area which doesn't bode well.