3 ms·
And we're not even close to the end of this. If the IFR holds up at what we're seeing, we already have another 50K deaths that will happen in the next few weeks
by greedo 7y ago
And we're not even close to the end of this. If the IFR holds up at what we're seeing, we already have another 50K deaths that will happen in the next few weeks.
Then the math gets really ugly. If herd immunity requires north of 60% to have been infected, that means 197M Americans. Of those 197M, roughly 5% will require hospitalization, and 1% will die. That equates to 10M hospitalizations and 1.9M deaths. Even being generous and lowering the IFR to .1%, means 190K deaths. Now this make be spread out over the next 7 months, but the butcher's bill will be paid. Hopefully we'll get a vaccine by then, or some therapeutic drugs, but I'm not optimistic.