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But it isn't 10% - it's probably closer to 50%. The car is $30-50k with a lifetime of what, 10 years? The driver needs to earn $40k/yr. The vast majority of

But it isn't 10% - it's probably closer to 50%. The car is $30-50k with a lifetime of what, 10 years? The driver needs to earn $40k/yr. The vast majority of the cost is the driver - insurance and fuel are next, ultimately followed by vehicle capex and maintenance. Also don't underestimate the amount of local news coverage the driverless taxi will get - combined with the "there's no rude, smelly person driving me".

Jommi 6y ago
I think you're severely overestimating your case, not to mention the cost will probably be determined by a multitude of factors, one of the big ones being how advanced the self-driving tech is. Most of your points are just theoretical anecdotes. You're not counting the RD cost that needs to be recouped. You're overestimating the trust people will have with "oh didn't that once kill a person"-autopilot will have.
- smachiz 6y ago
  > not to mention the cost will probably be determined by a multitude of factors, yes of course, but i included the big ones. >You're not counting the RD cost that needs to be recouped. Majority will be sunk costs by the time anyone is making money. But obviously, they will charge what the market will bear - but the margin improvement vs driven vehicles will be very significant. The first robotaxi fleet be able to put any driver-based taxi company out of business simply by undercutting on price for as long as it takes. The only enemy is time to build that base - but the first company to successfully bring a robotaxi to market will necessarily have absurdly deep pockets because they invested the R&D necessary to build something that drives itself. If someone has a robotaxi that isn't Uber, Uber is going to be in very big trouble. Also, I'm not really invested because I don't care - but it's really hard to overestimate the implications this has to the cost of (non-mass) transportation.

Jommi 6y ago

I think you're severely overestimating your case, not to mention the cost will probably be determined by a multitude of factors, one of the big ones being how advanced the self-driving tech is. Most of your points are just theoretical anecdotes. You're not counting the RD cost that needs to be recouped. You're overestimating the trust people will have with "oh didn't that once kill a person"-autopilot will have.

smachiz 6y ago
> not to mention the cost will probably be determined by a multitude of factors, yes of course, but i included the big ones. >You're not counting the RD cost that needs to be recouped. Majority will be sunk costs by the time anyone is making money. But obviously, they will charge what the market will bear - but the margin improvement vs driven vehicles will be very significant. The first robotaxi fleet be able to put any driver-based taxi company out of business simply by undercutting on price for as long as it takes. The only enemy is time to build that base - but the first company to successfully bring a robotaxi to market will necessarily have absurdly deep pockets because they invested the R&D necessary to build something that drives itself. If someone has a robotaxi that isn't Uber, Uber is going to be in very big trouble. Also, I'm not really invested because I don't care - but it's really hard to overestimate the implications this has to the cost of (non-mass) transportation.