3 ms·
The inferred IFR from serological prevalance and deaths in NYC is ~1%. NYC's demographics skew favorably compared to the nation, but assuming ~60% of the countr
by cozzyd 7y ago
The inferred IFR from serological prevalance and deaths in NYC is ~1%. NYC's demographics skew favorably compared to the nation, but assuming ~60% of the country would get COVID-19 if not for restrictions, 2 million is right on the money.
- pnako 7y agoAssuming 12.38 million people would die of it, 12.38 million people would die of it. Stop assuming things.
- cozzyd 7y agoIt's a conservative assumption based on a low estimate of R_0 without mitigations. It's hard to make inferences about the world without assumptions.
- selectodude 7y agoYou're the one trying to make OP prove a negative.
- greedo 7y agoAnd this also ignores those who survive COVID-19. Roughly 5% are being hospitalized with potential long term effects. Everyone assumes that we're over the hump. The only place in the US that I would consider over the hump is NYC. Everywhere else has nowhere to go until herd immunity is reached.