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New York was the exception to the rule. Most hospitals were not overwhelmed. In fact, many hospitals flirted with financial disaster when governors prevented el

New York was the exception to the rule. Most hospitals were not overwhelmed. In fact, many hospitals flirted with financial disaster when governors prevented elective procedures. I can speak specifically to AZ which outside of some very small Indian Reservation medical centers, is well below capacity[1] Seattle's Army hospital closed without a single patient[2]. Growth rates, especially in AZ, were never large to begin with. [1] - https://azgovernor.gov/sites/default/files/covidpresentation42220finalweb.pdf https://azgovernor.gov/sites/default/files/covidpresentation... [2] - https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/04/10/armys-seattle-field-hospital-closes-after-3-days-without-treating-single-patient.html https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/04/10/armys-seattle...

TylerE 6y ago
I would be cautious about using the past tense. New case rates have not come down much from peak - and I expect them to spike in the next few weeks as people let their guard down and things reopen. Deaths lag infections by several weeks. Over 2200 people died yesterday.
- abfan1127 6y ago
  I agree that with re-opening, we will see a bump in infections, and therefore deaths. However, there is only one path out of this and that is herd immunity. We can accelerate herd immunity via vaccine, but either way its herd immunity. That means that we want as many people sick as our hospital system can handle, but not more. That means playing a game of optimization. Further, different states (New York vs. Arizona) should have different plans because their situations are vastly different (population density, current herd infection status, etc). Further, we can't just optimize for Covid19 deaths, we have to look at the whole situation, which includes suicides due to shelter-in-place orders, child abuse and other domestic violence, malnutrition due to hunger from unemployment, negative impacts of poverty. this will certainly be a case study for future generations.
  - TylerE 6y ago
    Strongly disagree. We are learning how to help patients survive. If I must catch it, I want to catch it as far in the future as posslbe.
    - abfan1127 6y ago
      that's a decision in isolation. How many years of poverty are you willing to endure? Once you put it terms of trade-offs, then decisions make sense.
      - TylerE 6y ago
        Well, for me it’s pretty easy. I haVe several underlying conditions that mean it would likely be quite bad for me.
      - rumanator 6y ago
        > How many years of poverty are you willing to endure? I endure poverty much better than dead parents and loved ones.
  - thaumaturgy 6y ago
    > That means that we want as many people sick as our hospital system can handle, but not more. This would be the optimal situation, but it requires at least: * Widespread testing available to any who need it for any reason; * Careful, centralized monitoring and resource allocation; * Plenty of PPE, critical care equipment, and disposable goods; * A cooperative public willing to follow a constantly shifting set of recommendations. And the country as a whole has basically none of those things. California is better-resourced and managed (for this particular thing) than other states, so they're gonna give it a shot. The rest of the country is just gambling. This disease does not cooperate with this kind of response because of the lag time from initial infection to critical illness. Reports on this vary from like 3 days to 20-odd days. Coupled with the disease's high rate of infection, this means that a hospital can go from 50% full to 150% full very quickly. If a state government with an impossibly obedient population set a tripwire at 50% hospital capacity and shut everything down the minute they hit that mark, then they're still going to overflow a couple of weeks later as symptoms progress for those that were infected just before the shut-down.
2019-nCoV 6y ago
That’s to be expected. These processes are insurance. You plan and buy insurance to cover the expected unexpected. Should we congratulate the uninsured who weather the storm?
- buzzkillington 6y ago
  I have a anti-tiger stone I'd like to sell you.
  - sfj 6y ago
    I'll pay you $6 trillion for that rock. Let me know next month if another will be available. - U.S. Gov
greedo 6y ago
Growth rates are dependent upon testing, which is inadequate. And what little testing has been done by AZ shows a very large growth rate[1]. And the graph of growth rates by the AZ governor makes the same mistake in excluding the last 4-7 days of the graph's range. It's nonsense. [1]https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/arizona-coronavirus-cases.html#cases https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/arizona-coronavi...

TylerE 6y ago

I would be cautious about using the past tense. New case rates have not come down much from peak - and I expect them to spike in the next few weeks as people let their guard down and things reopen. Deaths lag infections by several weeks. Over 2200 people died yesterday.

abfan1127 6y ago
I agree that with re-opening, we will see a bump in infections, and therefore deaths. However, there is only one path out of this and that is herd immunity. We can accelerate herd immunity via vaccine, but either way its herd immunity. That means that we want as many people sick as our hospital system can handle, but not more. That means playing a game of optimization. Further, different states (New York vs. Arizona) should have different plans because their situations are vastly different (population density, current herd infection status, etc). Further, we can't just optimize for Covid19 deaths, we have to look at the whole situation, which includes suicides due to shelter-in-place orders, child abuse and other domestic violence, malnutrition due to hunger from unemployment, negative impacts of poverty. this will certainly be a case study for future generations.
- TylerE 6y ago
  Strongly disagree. We are learning how to help patients survive. If I must catch it, I want to catch it as far in the future as posslbe.
  - abfan1127 6y ago
    that's a decision in isolation. How many years of poverty are you willing to endure? Once you put it terms of trade-offs, then decisions make sense.
    - TylerE 6y ago
      Well, for me it’s pretty easy. I haVe several underlying conditions that mean it would likely be quite bad for me.
    - rumanator 6y ago
      > How many years of poverty are you willing to endure? I endure poverty much better than dead parents and loved ones.
- thaumaturgy 6y ago
  > That means that we want as many people sick as our hospital system can handle, but not more. This would be the optimal situation, but it requires at least: * Widespread testing available to any who need it for any reason; * Careful, centralized monitoring and resource allocation; * Plenty of PPE, critical care equipment, and disposable goods; * A cooperative public willing to follow a constantly shifting set of recommendations. And the country as a whole has basically none of those things. California is better-resourced and managed (for this particular thing) than other states, so they're gonna give it a shot. The rest of the country is just gambling. This disease does not cooperate with this kind of response because of the lag time from initial infection to critical illness. Reports on this vary from like 3 days to 20-odd days. Coupled with the disease's high rate of infection, this means that a hospital can go from 50% full to 150% full very quickly. If a state government with an impossibly obedient population set a tripwire at 50% hospital capacity and shut everything down the minute they hit that mark, then they're still going to overflow a couple of weeks later as symptoms progress for those that were infected just before the shut-down.

2019-nCoV 6y ago

That’s to be expected. These processes are insurance. You plan and buy insurance to cover the expected unexpected. Should we congratulate the uninsured who weather the storm?

buzzkillington 6y ago
I have a anti-tiger stone I'd like to sell you.
- sfj 6y ago
  I'll pay you $6 trillion for that rock. Let me know next month if another will be available. - U.S. Gov

greedo 6y ago

Growth rates are dependent upon testing, which is inadequate. And what little testing has been done by AZ shows a very large growth rate[1]. And the graph of growth rates by the AZ governor makes the same mistake in excluding the last 4-7 days of the graph's range. It's nonsense. [1]https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/arizona-coronavirus-cases.html#cases https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/arizona-coronavi...