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Except we don't know that and nobody is tracking it very well. It's an enormously risky approach. I think it will work out 'ok' for Sweden only because COVID i
by jariel 7y ago
Except we don't know that and nobody is tracking it very well. It's an enormously risky approach.
I think it will work out 'ok' for Sweden only because COVID isn't that-that bad, but if death rates were a little higher and R0 a bit higher it could have been a disaster.
Specifically: " They do not need to be coerced into a lockdown because they can be trusted to act properly." This to me is ridiculous - it's not 'trust' that matters, but policy: if restaurants are open and many people go there ... well, that's hugely different from 'restaurants closed'. Same thing for almost everything else. How can you 'trust' people to do the right thing whey nobody knows what the right thing is? Even certain behaviors like hand-washing and masks need to be propagandized and 'nudged' in order for people to take them seriously.
It may very well be that 'soft shut-down' in the long run is the right balance ... but I'd be wary to claim a big win on this if it was mostly a guess.
Taiwan and Korea are clearly the winners, in the West I suggest it's Germany.
- ferzul 7y agowhy germany? there seems to be plenty of states doing better than germany. it seems germany gets points just for having a long serving trusted leader at the helm
- pmiller2 7y agoI have to say, I would much rather have a quantum chemist leading the US now than someone who managed to bankrupt a casino.
- jariel 7y agoBecause Germany has 1/4 the deaths per capita than other Western states and considerably more testing. Spain has 550 deaths per million, Germany has 90. Most of the rest are in between. UK, Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands etc. - not so good at all, though Switzerland did a good job of getting things under control after a breakout. E. Europe has fared well, but there are lower testing and some questionable governance so well have to take a deeper look. Sweden's position is untenable and possibly unethical given the unknowns, it was a huge gamble.