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> A curve was trending exponential, and flattened with lockdown. What's the alternate scenario for what caused the curve to flatten? You cannot honestly believ
by tathougies 6y ago
> A curve was trending exponential, and flattened with lockdown. What's the alternate scenario for what caused the curve to flatten?
You cannot honestly believe this. 'Trending exponential' is such a useless buzzword. Exponential growth is only scary depending on the exponent itself. Our models on what that exponent were were absolutely, completely off by orders of magnitude. Just look at Sweden, they were estimating 40k deaths by now and only have three thousand something.
Certainly, early action helped flatten the curve, but the original estimates for what the curve would be were incredibly off. There was no overwhelming of hospitals in the US at all, despite warnings that they were imminent, even with behavioral changes. Our country's scientific advisers need to look inward at this point and figure out what went wrong with the models.