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> Employment and GDP contracting at historic rates. A pandemic that is not close to being over. I think you've made my point, this is a short term reality, and
by trcollinson 6y ago
> Employment and GDP contracting at historic rates. A pandemic that is not close to being over.
I think you've made my point, this is a short term reality, and a pessimistic one. We don't have a model for the long term economic reality of this situation. We only have speculation and guessing. So we have a short term economic reality but nothing more.
To say that the US stock market hasn't historically effected the economy at large seems to forget the Great Depression. I believe it is taken as economic fact that the Great Depression started with the crash of the stock market in 1929. There was quite a bit of speculation and the market went up and down all over the place, but finally settled with a huge amount of unemployment and a massive reduction in GDP. We have put into place numerous measures to make sure that doesn't happen again, and we are using them, effectively.
Also, I disagree that the markets are entirely divorced from the performance of the businesses that comprise them. Most people don't look at the entire market. We look at indexes. Look at the DJIA. With the exception of Nike, Disney, and Boeing, which of the 30 companies in the index are hit hard by this pandemic? If anything, which of those companies are increasing substantially before of the pandemic? They aren't steaming towards an iceberg. They a solid, recession resistant conglomerates that have substantial production power.