4 ms·

Which professional published best case death estimate did we not beat? I am not aware of one. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23028036 https://news.ycombi

• thephyber 6y ago
  Those model predictions are not for the first 3 months, but for the whole epidemic. We could very likely breach some of those predictions in the next 1-2 years. Also, the Imperial College paper was one of the more extreme models. It is the one that supposedly scared the White House and lots of states into action. In this way, it was not a best case estimate, but was self-selected to be an outlier.
  • jakeogh 6y ago
    It contains different estimates based on different actions taken, and yes, there is a best case estimate, I linked directly to that breakdown. As I said, there are no published best case death models that we have not come in under. Yes, yes, I know "wait two weeks" (now years).
    • pnako 6y ago
      "Wait for the second wave" is the new "Wait two weeks"