4 ms·
The 0.5% estimate is based on seroprevalence studies (which take into account the asymptomatic infected). The crude case fatality rate is more like 5%, which is
by esoterica 6y ago
The 0.5% estimate is based on seroprevalence studies (which take into account the asymptomatic infected). The crude case fatality rate is more like 5%, which is definitely an overestimate.
Also >0.2% of NYC has already died, so it's not possible for the fatality rate to be substantially below 0.5%.
- mikeyouse 6y agoNot sure why you're so heavily downvoted but if you took the total deaths across NYC and divided by the entire population of NYC, you get a strict lower bound IFR of 0.14% which makes this at least 3x deadlier than the flu. If you figure more like 1/5 of NYC has been infected, your IFR is more like 18x as deadly as the flu. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.20076026v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.22.20076026v...