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Yeah I've noticed this as well. For me, it's zero. For a colleague of mine, 6 friends/family died. What I'm very curious about is the impact of super-spreader
by IkmoIkmo 6y ago
Yeah I've noticed this as well. For me, it's zero. For a colleague of mine, 6 friends/family died.
What I'm very curious about is the impact of super-spreader events. There's some indication that say 10% of activities are responsible for 90% of the infections, e.g. a football stadium, a concert etc.
What I wonder is, what does the distribution look like? 1% of activities cause 90% of cases, or 30/70?
And then, what happens to the R0 / infection rate, if you can ban/restrict those high-impact activities in particular? Does the coronavirus then start to mimic the impact of a much more benign issue such as the flu? Or would the effect be minimal, and does that mean that a second wave around august and follow-up lockdown is basically guaranteed?
That to me is what everything is banking on, with a vaccine 9-18 months away, markets will be butchered if we get a second wave+lockdown. If that doesn't happen, then unemployment figures / markets will probably recover relatively quickly given the relatively decent economic fundamentals going into this crisis, and the unprecedented government / central bank support packages.