2 ms·

> That SARS-CoV-2 was in our environment for months longer than thought, that 20% or more of Americans may already have antibodies It's generally a good habit

> That SARS-CoV-2 was in our environment for months longer than thought, that 20% or more of Americans may already have antibodies It's generally a good habit to do a little bit of simple arithmetic to see if the claims you are making pass a basic sanity check. If 20% of Americans already have antibodies, then how come NYC has 10x as many deaths per capita as the rest of the country? Did 200% of New Yorkers get infected?

djsumdog 6y ago
Dr. John Ioannidis released the result of his Serology Study in California: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGUgrEfSgaU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGUgrEfSgaU We've found earlier cases in the US: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest... and it was spreading in France earlier than we thought: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.106006 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.106006 / https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23072956 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23072956 We don't have the testing yet to really get good numbers/samples though. We need more random sampling antibody tests. A number of people claimed they got sick this year after leaving conferences in Las Vegas, but it's all anecdotal without wide scale efforts to just test random people for antibodies in cities in all US states. NYC's numbers could be due to population density (amount of exposure can increase severity in some viruses, including SARS-CoV-2) and some of the increase could just be medical malpractice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvhTQV5FNUE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvhTQV5FNUE
- esoterica 6y ago
  > Dr. John Ioannidis released the result of his Serology Study in California: That study showed that the seroprevalance in Santa Clara was less than 2%. That directly contradicts your earlier suggestion that 20% of the country was infected. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/ https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaw... The seroprevalence number was also approximately the same size as the confidence interval on the false positive rate of the antibody test they were using, which means the confidence interval for the denominator of the fatality rate goes all the way down to zero, i.e. the fatality rate estimates are complete garbage. > NYC's numbers could be due to population density (amount of exposure can increase severity in some viruses, including SARS-CoV-2) Other death hotspots include New Orleans, Detroit, rural Georgia, etc. none of which have high population density.

djsumdog 6y ago

Dr. John Ioannidis released the result of his Serology Study in California: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGUgrEfSgaU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGUgrEfSgaU We've found earlier cases in the US: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest... and it was spreading in France earlier than we thought: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.106006 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.106006 / https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23072956 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23072956 We don't have the testing yet to really get good numbers/samples though. We need more random sampling antibody tests. A number of people claimed they got sick this year after leaving conferences in Las Vegas, but it's all anecdotal without wide scale efforts to just test random people for antibodies in cities in all US states. NYC's numbers could be due to population density (amount of exposure can increase severity in some viruses, including SARS-CoV-2) and some of the increase could just be medical malpractice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvhTQV5FNUE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvhTQV5FNUE

esoterica 6y ago
> Dr. John Ioannidis released the result of his Serology Study in California: That study showed that the seroprevalance in Santa Clara was less than 2%. That directly contradicts your earlier suggestion that 20% of the country was infected. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/ https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaw... The seroprevalence number was also approximately the same size as the confidence interval on the false positive rate of the antibody test they were using, which means the confidence interval for the denominator of the fatality rate goes all the way down to zero, i.e. the fatality rate estimates are complete garbage. > NYC's numbers could be due to population density (amount of exposure can increase severity in some viruses, including SARS-CoV-2) Other death hotspots include New Orleans, Detroit, rural Georgia, etc. none of which have high population density.