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> Or did people just die at home afraid to go to the hospital? Probably yes. In the UK there is a significant surge in non covid related deaths above historica

> Or did people just die at home afraid to go to the hospital? Probably yes. In the UK there is a significant surge in non covid related deaths above historical stats. Bear in mind also the definition of a covid 19 related death is, err, generous in the first place https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/non-covid-deaths-are-also-surging https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/non-covid-deaths-are-als...

thebruce87m 6y ago
Not saying you’re wrong, I do think there would be some of that but I am looking at a way to quantify it, especially since my friend is convinced that the lockdown is worse than the virus. Here is something I found interesting: Spain has a “hard lockdown” too. Their excess mortality has returned to a normal level according to momo: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ Now I realise that some people that would normally die are not (car accidents etc), but at the same time if the lockdown itself was causing significant mortality you wouldn’t expect the excess mortality to drop to normal levels, would you? You would expect a small offset from 0 unless the savings from car crashes are exactly the same compared to “lockdown deaths” - and if they are, and the lockdown is saving “extra” lives then is it not still worth it? We have to wait and see for England to see if it falls back to normal or below normal levels.
- mgsouth 6y ago
  > Spain has a “hard lockdown” too. Their excess mortality has returned to a normal level according to momo That's probably inaccurate. I've been following MOMO's graphs, and the yellow-band portions (most recent weeks) grossly underreport and are subject to upward correction. Data points get larger and larger as they age. For example, "Spain Week 11" was pretty small when first reported (in week 12?), was larger the next week, and larger still a week later.
miscPerson 6y ago
The CDC says we’re slightly under expected deaths in the US, including COVID cases. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
- foota 6y ago
  This isn't true, deaths reported lag, so the numbers continue to go up after the week is over.
- sgt101 6y ago
  I read that data as showing that the USA has had a sharp excess death event for each of the last four weeks reported. I'm seeing a much greater excess death rate than the official Covid19 reports.
- alistairSH 6y ago
  Looks at the data by state or city. VA shows a huge spike over normal in early April. NY and NYC show even bigger spikes. And the data is only through April 1. I suspect the excess death rates will be higher nationwide from April 1-May 1.
  - lsllc 6y ago
    Where are you seeing "only through April 1" ? The tables say 2/1/2020 to 5/2/2020 and shows 5 weeks of data for April thru May (the page is updated as-of today, 5/8/2020).
lostlogin 6y ago
The article says: “Imperial College London’s Neil Ferguson has said, as many of two-thirds of 'Covid deaths' would have happened anyway” Would these deaths have happened in a massive spike? If not, then it isn’t anything like the same and if so, why?
- sesutton 6y ago
  Presumably he means they would've happened in the same time period otherwise it's a meaningless statement. On a long enough timescale everyone who died of Covid would've died anyway.
  - dboreham 6y ago
    Whether it's meaningless depends on the timescale. For zero months its very meaningful while for infinity months it's completely meaningless. And in-between it's meaningful, e.g. they would have died in the next 12 months.
- marcell 6y ago
  The implication is they would have died soon, like in the next 6 months. About half of Covid deaths are in nursing homes. The median lifespan after entering a nursing home is 5 months, and the mean is 13 months. Coronavirus is very infectious, so if it enters a nursing home, it could easily spread and wipe out everyone who was on the brink of dearth, or on a fragile state.
  - lukas099 6y ago
    According to The Economist, the average lifetime lost per covid death is over 10 years. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-most-covid-19-victims-have-died-soon-without-the-virus https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-mo...
    - marcell 6y ago
      Well, it's worth keeping in mind that the risk of death from a coronavirus infection is comparable to the annual risk of death from all causes. Coronavirus infection though is a once per lifetime risk, whereas all-cause mortality occurs every year. Just as a random comparable, the annual risk of getting cancer if you're 35 years old is around 0.1%, and the annual risk of having a heart attack is around 0.5% (higher for men, lower for women). All of those diseases would have similar average lifetime lost as covid, but the risk is continuous, not a once per lifetime occurance.

thebruce87m 6y ago

Not saying you’re wrong, I do think there would be some of that but I am looking at a way to quantify it, especially since my friend is convinced that the lockdown is worse than the virus. Here is something I found interesting: Spain has a “hard lockdown” too. Their excess mortality has returned to a normal level according to momo: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ Now I realise that some people that would normally die are not (car accidents etc), but at the same time if the lockdown itself was causing significant mortality you wouldn’t expect the excess mortality to drop to normal levels, would you? You would expect a small offset from 0 unless the savings from car crashes are exactly the same compared to “lockdown deaths” - and if they are, and the lockdown is saving “extra” lives then is it not still worth it? We have to wait and see for England to see if it falls back to normal or below normal levels.

mgsouth 6y ago
> Spain has a “hard lockdown” too. Their excess mortality has returned to a normal level according to momo That's probably inaccurate. I've been following MOMO's graphs, and the yellow-band portions (most recent weeks) grossly underreport and are subject to upward correction. Data points get larger and larger as they age. For example, "Spain Week 11" was pretty small when first reported (in week 12?), was larger the next week, and larger still a week later.

miscPerson 6y ago

The CDC says we’re slightly under expected deaths in the US, including COVID cases. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

foota 6y ago
This isn't true, deaths reported lag, so the numbers continue to go up after the week is over.
sgt101 6y ago
I read that data as showing that the USA has had a sharp excess death event for each of the last four weeks reported. I'm seeing a much greater excess death rate than the official Covid19 reports.
alistairSH 6y ago
Looks at the data by state or city. VA shows a huge spike over normal in early April. NY and NYC show even bigger spikes. And the data is only through April 1. I suspect the excess death rates will be higher nationwide from April 1-May 1.
- lsllc 6y ago
  Where are you seeing "only through April 1" ? The tables say 2/1/2020 to 5/2/2020 and shows 5 weeks of data for April thru May (the page is updated as-of today, 5/8/2020).

lostlogin 6y ago

The article says: “Imperial College London’s Neil Ferguson has said, as many of two-thirds of 'Covid deaths' would have happened anyway” Would these deaths have happened in a massive spike? If not, then it isn’t anything like the same and if so, why?

sesutton 6y ago
Presumably he means they would've happened in the same time period otherwise it's a meaningless statement. On a long enough timescale everyone who died of Covid would've died anyway.
- dboreham 6y ago
  Whether it's meaningless depends on the timescale. For zero months its very meaningful while for infinity months it's completely meaningless. And in-between it's meaningful, e.g. they would have died in the next 12 months.
marcell 6y ago
The implication is they would have died soon, like in the next 6 months. About half of Covid deaths are in nursing homes. The median lifespan after entering a nursing home is 5 months, and the mean is 13 months. Coronavirus is very infectious, so if it enters a nursing home, it could easily spread and wipe out everyone who was on the brink of dearth, or on a fragile state.
- lukas099 6y ago
  According to The Economist, the average lifetime lost per covid death is over 10 years. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-most-covid-19-victims-have-died-soon-without-the-virus https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/02/would-mo...
  - marcell 6y ago
    Well, it's worth keeping in mind that the risk of death from a coronavirus infection is comparable to the annual risk of death from all causes. Coronavirus infection though is a once per lifetime risk, whereas all-cause mortality occurs every year. Just as a random comparable, the annual risk of getting cancer if you're 35 years old is around 0.1%, and the annual risk of having a heart attack is around 0.5% (higher for men, lower for women). All of those diseases would have similar average lifetime lost as covid, but the risk is continuous, not a once per lifetime occurance.