3 ms·
I don't think anyone knows for sure, but imo these are 3 possible reasons (all of which are flawed and can't explain it entirely): 1. All of these declines wer
by rococode 6y ago
I don't think anyone knows for sure, but imo these are 3 possible reasons (all of which are flawed and can't explain it entirely):
1. All of these declines were "priced in" (which frankly is a bit of a meme now) and they ended up not being as bad as expected. If there's there's a record new unemployment claims of 6m but the expected number was 10m then the market will love it and go up even though it's the worst in history.
Counterargument: The economy is still fundamentally weaker, so while we can go up when things aren't as bad as expected, we shouldn't be recovering as much as we have.
2. Technically the stock market is a predictor of future returns, and I guess many investors are confident that most of the major companies will survive and continue making big bucks in the future. People don't feel the same way about, for example, the airlines, which is why they have not made nearly as much of a recovery as the rest of the market. If the long-term impact for most companies is just -2 years of revenue and then everything is back to normal, it's almost negligible in the long run.
Counterargument: Well-run big corps can probably survive a 2-year loss of revenue (and it'll probably be less than that in reality), but many SMBs can't and will close. Waves of SMB customers closing would obviously have long-term implications for all corporations.
3. Governments worldwide are going all out to prevent a collapse of the economy. If the government will literally just pump out money to save the economy, then why should the market bother going down at all when it can just keep going up and take all those free government bucks?
Counterargument: A huge amount of money being injected into the economy for free doesn't seem healthy for the economy. Right now there's deflation because of reduced demand, but we could see major inflation since those dollars are out and in circulation now. And actually, the rise in stock prices maybe already reflect incoming inflation.