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Interesting that you feel this data isn’t available on a per case basis... it’s even more interesting that I end up with downvotes foe sharing my actual experie

by 12xo 6y ago

Interesting that you feel this data isn’t available on a per case basis... it’s even more interesting that I end up with downvotes foe sharing my actual experiences. HN is tone deaf. Most of you folks work in modern tech! Modern in the sense that your company and job are likely based on big data... ugggh

govg 6y ago
....what they're saying is that there's no feasible way of getting an exact count for unemployment and you have to use some extrapolation.
skybrian 6y ago
I think you got downvoted for dismissing the whole concept of random sampling. In a random survey you're not representing your friends. They will presumably be represented by randomly picking someone who happens to be more like them. (Also unumployed.)
- 12xo 6y ago
  I didn’t dismiss anything of the sort, that’s what’s funny. I shared my actual experience of being chosen as a panelist and have a vastly different outcome and outlook than many of my friends. It’s not an uncommon assertion that the Fed data is not accurate. Number 1 it’s political. And perhaps more importantly, it’s designed to obfuscate the individual and that, while statistically accurate for static data is anything but for this type of situation. People and specific employment issues are anything but static...
  - IkmoIkmo 6y ago
    You literally said it's just a guess. It's not. It's a scientific method of estimation which has known expectations of accuracy, and when done right, has a track-record of being able to provide reasonable approximations. Saying it's 'just a guess' implies something very different for which you are rightly downvoted. Second, explaining the basics of random sampling by saying what applies to you, did not happen to apply to your friends/family, implies you have no understanding of the concept of random sampling either. There is absolutely no requirement for your situation to be the same as your friends/family to make this method useful, but by posting it as an argument, you imply that this does matter. For this, your post is also rightly downvoted. As for 'static data', it's a sample to provide insight in a snapshot in time. It doesn't claim to be anything but static. It does exactly what it sets out to do.
    - 12xo 6y ago
      Garbage in, garbage out.... of course the data over time will correct but the anomalies created by a few outliers are in fact a representation of bad practices. And those outliers are not measured because one cannot ever account for every potential situation when it comes to people. So they create a margin.... works for figures but NOT for policy!! My point,by the way. No wonder SV is still chasing ad optimization as it’s primary business. It’s impossible to ever become efficient, but that doesn’t stop people from chasing the paradigm. Because it’s the cracks and crevices that allow for exploitation, that’s why.... oh never mind, I’m talking psychology to people who think in binary and never the two shall twain
take_a_breath 6y ago
People who work in big data understand how statistics, extrapolation and time-series work. You might be more interested in the ADP data, as they use actual payroll data. Their payroll research shows 20.2 million jobs lost [1]. [1] https://adpemploymentreport.com/2020/April/NER/NER-April-2020.aspx https://adpemploymentreport.com/2020/April/NER/NER-April-202...

by 12xo 6y ago

govg 6y ago

....what they're saying is that there's no feasible way of getting an exact count for unemployment and you have to use some extrapolation.

skybrian 6y ago

I think you got downvoted for dismissing the whole concept of random sampling. In a random survey you're not representing your friends. They will presumably be represented by randomly picking someone who happens to be more like them. (Also unumployed.)

12xo 6y ago
I didn’t dismiss anything of the sort, that’s what’s funny. I shared my actual experience of being chosen as a panelist and have a vastly different outcome and outlook than many of my friends. It’s not an uncommon assertion that the Fed data is not accurate. Number 1 it’s political. And perhaps more importantly, it’s designed to obfuscate the individual and that, while statistically accurate for static data is anything but for this type of situation. People and specific employment issues are anything but static...
- IkmoIkmo 6y ago
  You literally said it's just a guess. It's not. It's a scientific method of estimation which has known expectations of accuracy, and when done right, has a track-record of being able to provide reasonable approximations. Saying it's 'just a guess' implies something very different for which you are rightly downvoted. Second, explaining the basics of random sampling by saying what applies to you, did not happen to apply to your friends/family, implies you have no understanding of the concept of random sampling either. There is absolutely no requirement for your situation to be the same as your friends/family to make this method useful, but by posting it as an argument, you imply that this does matter. For this, your post is also rightly downvoted. As for 'static data', it's a sample to provide insight in a snapshot in time. It doesn't claim to be anything but static. It does exactly what it sets out to do.
  - 12xo 6y ago
    Garbage in, garbage out.... of course the data over time will correct but the anomalies created by a few outliers are in fact a representation of bad practices. And those outliers are not measured because one cannot ever account for every potential situation when it comes to people. So they create a margin.... works for figures but NOT for policy!! My point,by the way. No wonder SV is still chasing ad optimization as it’s primary business. It’s impossible to ever become efficient, but that doesn’t stop people from chasing the paradigm. Because it’s the cracks and crevices that allow for exploitation, that’s why.... oh never mind, I’m talking psychology to people who think in binary and never the two shall twain

take_a_breath 6y ago

People who work in big data understand how statistics, extrapolation and time-series work. You might be more interested in the ADP data, as they use actual payroll data. Their payroll research shows 20.2 million jobs lost [1]. [1] https://adpemploymentreport.com/2020/April/NER/NER-April-2020.aspx https://adpemploymentreport.com/2020/April/NER/NER-April-202...