5 ms·
Wrong assumptions/data/conclusions from the epidemic model Misattribution of cause
by downshun 6y ago
Wrong assumptions/data/conclusions from the epidemic model
Misattribution of cause
- ceejayoz 6y agoSeems like it should be fairly trivial to test. Different countries went into lockdown at different times. When did each one's curve start to flatten in relation to their lockdowns?
- downshun 6y ago'the curve' is based on a model. All models are wrong. No matter how much it is broadcasted.
- ceejayoz 6y agoI'm not referring to the future models, I'm referring to the "how many cases have we confirmed per day" charts. (You could also do it with the excess death charts, given enough time for that data to settle out.) Stuff like https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ and https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav....
- mattkrause 6y agoData from Italy makes for a good head-to-head comparison. Five regions locked down much sooner than their neighbors, and fared, at least initially, much better. Preprint: https://t.co/JYf1F5GnYu?amp=1 https://t.co/JYf1F5GnYu?amp=1 Figure S3 is probably the most relevant.
- afterburner 6y agoWe don't know when each country really got their first COVID-19 infections. That will always complicate analysis, and it will never be trivial. Never mind that we don't fully understand the virus itself, it's new.
- ceejayoz 6y agoUse the spikes in excess death rates, then. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronav...
- afterburner 6y agoThe relationship between the spike and the beginning of spread is changed by the effectiveness of lockdown/other measures. Not to mention other variables like population density, population activity, etc.