3 ms·

I'm not an epidemiologist or involved in government policy decisions, but I agree with your assessment that we won't be able to truly go back to normal until we

I'm not an epidemiologist or involved in government policy decisions, but I agree with your assessment that we won't be able to truly go back to normal until we have 70%+ immunity, be that through infection or vaccine (2+ years away). My guess as to what is driving current policy decisions is that a few factors are in play: 1) If we just "let it loose" then we will quickly overwhelm hospitals and see greater loss of life than is necessary 2) We may be able to delay widespread infection until there are more effective treatments. And, given how much we don't know, it is almost certainly the case that a delay of a few months until widespread infection means that we will have a better understanding of how effective our current treatments are, allowing better treatment and better allocation of hospital resources 3) Slowly reopening allows high-risk groups to keep themselves safer, while people who are eager to get haircuts and play sports and aren't worried about the risk can volunteer themselves to be part of our herd immunity group.

basch 6y ago
Something like 80-90% of the deaths in some states are age 80+ and or at communal living situations. Is there a takeaway here, about more surgically precise lockdowns? Also, many projections appear to predict spread uniformly. Should spread be modeled more by frequency of travel and interaction, moreso assuming that people with frequent interactions are likely to be infected first? There has to be a way to model, predict, and account for the ebb and flow of which demographics are getting hit, and how to shape the spread with regard to capacity and risk. Hospitals are empty, open the gates a bit. Opening up restrictions on the lowest risk populations first, and tightening them back up as cases rise too fast. This would likely be predicated on a stronger welfare state, more equipped to serve people they are asking to stay locked down. "Stay inside, but we got your back" coupled with "your risk is low, go build herd immunity, stay away from the vulnerable." Maybe something like a pollen or wildfire indicator, or defcon, county by county. "Free to do anything. Slightly elevated risk. High risk quarantine. Quarantine for all" with week by week or day by day updates. I understand that such a volatile type of lockdown would be hard for businesses to adapt to.
- magneticnorth 6y ago
  Yeah, it seems that daily or weekly indicators like we currently do for pollen, wildfire smoke, smog etc could be very helpful. In order for that to work, though, we'll need very widespread testing - currently we're observing spread with a 1-2 week lag once symptomatic people get their test results back.

basch 6y ago

Something like 80-90% of the deaths in some states are age 80+ and or at communal living situations. Is there a takeaway here, about more surgically precise lockdowns? Also, many projections appear to predict spread uniformly. Should spread be modeled more by frequency of travel and interaction, moreso assuming that people with frequent interactions are likely to be infected first? There has to be a way to model, predict, and account for the ebb and flow of which demographics are getting hit, and how to shape the spread with regard to capacity and risk. Hospitals are empty, open the gates a bit. Opening up restrictions on the lowest risk populations first, and tightening them back up as cases rise too fast. This would likely be predicated on a stronger welfare state, more equipped to serve people they are asking to stay locked down. "Stay inside, but we got your back" coupled with "your risk is low, go build herd immunity, stay away from the vulnerable." Maybe something like a pollen or wildfire indicator, or defcon, county by county. "Free to do anything. Slightly elevated risk. High risk quarantine. Quarantine for all" with week by week or day by day updates. I understand that such a volatile type of lockdown would be hard for businesses to adapt to.

magneticnorth 6y ago
Yeah, it seems that daily or weekly indicators like we currently do for pollen, wildfire smoke, smog etc could be very helpful. In order for that to work, though, we'll need very widespread testing - currently we're observing spread with a 1-2 week lag once symptomatic people get their test results back.