4 ms·

If you're so sure of that, I hope you are shorting the market.

by robjan 6y ago

ceejayoz 6y ago
I'm not prepared to take the unlimited downside on that, but I did largely get out of the market recently. The Dow hit the 7000s in the last recession, and every indication is that this one will be far larger.
- frockington1 6y ago
  Theres many ways to do that without unlimited downside. Buy long dated puts. If you really think the DOW will hit 7000, then buy gold because everything will crumble. What bad news do you expect to cause the market to decrease by 70%? States are opening up with success and even South Dakota who did absolutely nothing seems to be doing pretty well
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    > What bad news do you expect to cause the market to decrease by 70%? The recession we've just entered? > States are opening up with success Sure, and the Iraq War was winding down back in 2003. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission_Accomplished_speech https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission_Accomplished_speech
  - Spooky23 6y ago
    When companies miss their revenue by 5%, the stock plunges. We're in a reality where whole industries are nuked. I'm friendly with the guy who owns a gas station franchise -- his business is down 90%. The oil company, CocaCola bottler, candy distributor, Frito-Lay franchisee, gift card network, etc are all feeling that.
Spooky23 6y ago
I don't have the cash or the time to do that. My approach was to allocate my portfolio to 50% cash/short term bond in the fall/winter as a reaction to other factors that I wasn't personally comfortable with. I'll start dollar cost averaging into a more equity focused allocation later in 2020 or next year. It's too risky for me right now, Federal policy is so unpredictable and insane you have no idea what will happen. For example, the proposal floated last night to delay 2019 tax filings to after the election will bankrupt states with income tax, whose policies didn't forsee a madman POTUS. If we end up in a depression-like state, i may use the cash to keep my house, etc.

If you're so sure of that, I hope you are shorting the market.

by robjan 6y ago

If you're so sure of that, I hope you are shorting the market.

I'm not prepared to take the unlimited downside on that, but I did largely get out of the market recently. The Dow hit the 7000s in the last recession, and every indication is that this one will be far larger.

frockington1 6y ago
Theres many ways to do that without unlimited downside. Buy long dated puts. If you really think the DOW will hit 7000, then buy gold because everything will crumble. What bad news do you expect to cause the market to decrease by 70%? States are opening up with success and even South Dakota who did absolutely nothing seems to be doing pretty well
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  > What bad news do you expect to cause the market to decrease by 70%? The recession we've just entered? > States are opening up with success Sure, and the Iraq War was winding down back in 2003. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission_Accomplished_speech https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission_Accomplished_speech
- Spooky23 6y ago
  When companies miss their revenue by 5%, the stock plunges. We're in a reality where whole industries are nuked. I'm friendly with the guy who owns a gas station franchise -- his business is down 90%. The oil company, CocaCola bottler, candy distributor, Frito-Lay franchisee, gift card network, etc are all feeling that.

Spooky23 6y ago

I don't have the cash or the time to do that. My approach was to allocate my portfolio to 50% cash/short term bond in the fall/winter as a reaction to other factors that I wasn't personally comfortable with. I'll start dollar cost averaging into a more equity focused allocation later in 2020 or next year. It's too risky for me right now, Federal policy is so unpredictable and insane you have no idea what will happen. For example, the proposal floated last night to delay 2019 tax filings to after the election will bankrupt states with income tax, whose policies didn't forsee a madman POTUS. If we end up in a depression-like state, i may use the cash to keep my house, etc.