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My prediction is we hit (or in reality, have already hit) 48 million unemployed (~30%) in the U.S. It’s just many aren’t filing for unemployment because they c

My prediction is we hit (or in reality, have already hit) 48 million unemployed (~30%) in the U.S. It’s just many aren’t filing for unemployment because they can’t get through OR they decided not to apply (due to receiving stimulus / severance). Full predictions / data here: https://austingwalters.com/covid-19-u-s-fatalities-economic-predictions/ https://austingwalters.com/covid-19-u-s-fatalities-economic-... The gist is that retailers are going bankrupt (see J. Crew & Neiman Marcus) and places like Macy’s are furloughing most of the staff. Airlines are similarly hit, and I can go on (it’s linked above). If retail and hospitality (and similar sectors) shrink by 80% for 6 months that’s a massive number of unemployed - 33 million. Further, recruiting and marketing has cut staff at most non-FAANG places (see Uber, Lyft, AirBnB, etc), This will start to impact the tech industry. Banking is going to see massive defaults in the next 3-6 months... the list goes on. Easy to see unemployment hitting 30% in the next 2 months.

k__ 7y ago
Do you think this will be their downfall in the long run?
- generalpass 7y ago
  Who are "they"?
- vorpalhex 7y ago
  It's not good for the now unemployed people but hopefully they'll get back on their feet!
toomuchtodo 7y ago
Thanks for sharing this analysis.
vonmoltke 7y ago
> It’s just many aren’t filing for unemployment because they can’t get through OR they decided not to apply (due to receiving stimulus / severance). The BLS numbers have nothing to do with unemployment filings. They base their unemployment numbers off two surveys: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm People not looking could skew the numbers, but since the vast majority of the job losses in the report are considered temporary layoffs, and since the BLS always counts temporarily laid off people as "unemployed" regardless of other criteria, I don't expect it to be a significant factor.
- 12xo 7y ago
  I was once one of these panelists. As one, I represented 0000’s of other people via their extrapolation. While my experiences at the time (2009) were common, they did not represent that of many of my fellow unemployed colleagues and friends. In other words: these surveys are guesses. Nothing more... take them as estimates only and know that the truth is always different.
  - mywittyname 7y ago
    Is there a better alternative? I understand your criticism, but this is not a dataset that can be reasonably obtained in its entirety, so sampling is basically required. Their methods have been largely consistent over the years, so even if it isn't complete, it's easy to compare to historical trends, which is more important in this context.
    - 12xo 7y ago
      Interesting that you feel this data isn’t available on a per case basis... it’s even more interesting that I end up with downvotes foe sharing my actual experiences. HN is tone deaf. Most of you folks work in modern tech! Modern in the sense that your company and job are likely based on big data... ugggh
      - govg 7y ago
        ....what they're saying is that there's no feasible way of getting an exact count for unemployment and you have to use some extrapolation.
      - skybrian 7y ago
        I think you got downvoted for dismissing the whole concept of random sampling. In a random survey you're not representing your friends. They will presumably be represented by randomly picking someone who happens to be more like them. (Also unumployed.)
        7y ago
JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago
The risk of re-opening means there will no longer be cover for unemployment benefits. But since the pandemic is still happening, demand won't recover fast enough to put all these people back to work, and the furloughs become permanent layoffs.
gruez 7y ago
>OR they decided not to apply (due to receiving stimulus / severance). Does receiving either prevent you from getting unemployment? If not, why would you turn down free money?
- kradroy 7y ago
  Severance can definitely delay receiving unemployment. Receiving the $1200 stimulus does not, but receiving the PPP funds through your employer would. The latter consequence is causing some employers to not use that loan/grant.
  - wcfields 7y ago
    For myself, I was furloughed March 23, had about a week of paid Vacation that I used up until March 30th. Filed for unemployment on the 31st. My health benefits continued until April 30th at which time I would be laid off. Employer got PPP and I was un-furloughed on April 27th and they have enough runway for us until June 30th when the PPP runs out. Everyone got a sizable paycut, myself 37%. I work in corporate events / trade-shows / experiential advertising and this whole industry won't survive.
andrewprock 7y ago
Workforce participation dropped from 61% in the US to 51%. That means that 10% of the US are no longer working. That comes out to 33 million people. 10/61 is 16.3% jobless, but there is "only" a 14.7% unemployment rate. Some of the balance is retiring, some are hospitalized.
- IkmoIkmo 7y ago
  Is it also not the case that if you're not looking for work, but do not have a job, that you're not counted as unemployed? You're simply not part of the labour force, despite perhaps being willing and able to work in more favourable economic conditions. This is at least the international labour organisation (ILO) definition.[0] This is always a bit tricky as it means that when people are discouraged from finding work (e.g. because it is hopeless and they cannot find a job) and stop searching, that they fall outside the unemployment figures. This undervalues true unemployment a bit. This may help explain some of the discrepancies in the statistics. [0] https://www.ilo.org/ilostat-files/Documents/description_UR_EN.pdf https://www.ilo.org/ilostat-files/Documents/description_UR_E...
  - dragontamer 7y ago
    This discussion comes up almost every time U-3 (official unemployment) is reported. There's a reason why the USA keeps track of U1, U2, U3, U4, U5, and U6. Because everyone has their own opinion about who, or what, should count as unemployed. It sounds like the number YOU are looking for is U4, which is U3 + Discouraged Workers. -------- U3 is reported because U3 has been reported for the past 100 years. If we want to compare today's unemployment with the unemployment in 1930s, we use U3. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
  - andrewprock 7y ago
    True, but at the same time, we cannot say that there is a 49% unemployment rate despite the fact that 49% of the populace are not employed.

k__ 7y ago

Do you think this will be their downfall in the long run?

generalpass 7y ago
Who are "they"?
vorpalhex 7y ago
It's not good for the now unemployed people but hopefully they'll get back on their feet!

toomuchtodo 7y ago

Thanks for sharing this analysis.

vonmoltke 7y ago

> It’s just many aren’t filing for unemployment because they can’t get through OR they decided not to apply (due to receiving stimulus / severance). The BLS numbers have nothing to do with unemployment filings. They base their unemployment numbers off two surveys: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm People not looking could skew the numbers, but since the vast majority of the job losses in the report are considered temporary layoffs, and since the BLS always counts temporarily laid off people as "unemployed" regardless of other criteria, I don't expect it to be a significant factor.

12xo 7y ago
I was once one of these panelists. As one, I represented 0000’s of other people via their extrapolation. While my experiences at the time (2009) were common, they did not represent that of many of my fellow unemployed colleagues and friends. In other words: these surveys are guesses. Nothing more... take them as estimates only and know that the truth is always different.
- mywittyname 7y ago
  Is there a better alternative? I understand your criticism, but this is not a dataset that can be reasonably obtained in its entirety, so sampling is basically required. Their methods have been largely consistent over the years, so even if it isn't complete, it's easy to compare to historical trends, which is more important in this context.
  - 12xo 7y ago
    Interesting that you feel this data isn’t available on a per case basis... it’s even more interesting that I end up with downvotes foe sharing my actual experiences. HN is tone deaf. Most of you folks work in modern tech! Modern in the sense that your company and job are likely based on big data... ugggh
    - govg 7y ago
      ....what they're saying is that there's no feasible way of getting an exact count for unemployment and you have to use some extrapolation.
    - skybrian 7y ago
      I think you got downvoted for dismissing the whole concept of random sampling. In a random survey you're not representing your friends. They will presumably be represented by randomly picking someone who happens to be more like them. (Also unumployed.)
      - 7y ago

JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago

The risk of re-opening means there will no longer be cover for unemployment benefits. But since the pandemic is still happening, demand won't recover fast enough to put all these people back to work, and the furloughs become permanent layoffs.

gruez 7y ago

>OR they decided not to apply (due to receiving stimulus / severance). Does receiving either prevent you from getting unemployment? If not, why would you turn down free money?

kradroy 7y ago
Severance can definitely delay receiving unemployment. Receiving the $1200 stimulus does not, but receiving the PPP funds through your employer would. The latter consequence is causing some employers to not use that loan/grant.
- wcfields 7y ago
  For myself, I was furloughed March 23, had about a week of paid Vacation that I used up until March 30th. Filed for unemployment on the 31st. My health benefits continued until April 30th at which time I would be laid off. Employer got PPP and I was un-furloughed on April 27th and they have enough runway for us until June 30th when the PPP runs out. Everyone got a sizable paycut, myself 37%. I work in corporate events / trade-shows / experiential advertising and this whole industry won't survive.

andrewprock 7y ago

Workforce participation dropped from 61% in the US to 51%. That means that 10% of the US are no longer working. That comes out to 33 million people. 10/61 is 16.3% jobless, but there is "only" a 14.7% unemployment rate. Some of the balance is retiring, some are hospitalized.

IkmoIkmo 7y ago
Is it also not the case that if you're not looking for work, but do not have a job, that you're not counted as unemployed? You're simply not part of the labour force, despite perhaps being willing and able to work in more favourable economic conditions. This is at least the international labour organisation (ILO) definition.[0] This is always a bit tricky as it means that when people are discouraged from finding work (e.g. because it is hopeless and they cannot find a job) and stop searching, that they fall outside the unemployment figures. This undervalues true unemployment a bit. This may help explain some of the discrepancies in the statistics. [0] https://www.ilo.org/ilostat-files/Documents/description_UR_EN.pdf https://www.ilo.org/ilostat-files/Documents/description_UR_E...
- dragontamer 7y ago
  This discussion comes up almost every time U-3 (official unemployment) is reported. There's a reason why the USA keeps track of U1, U2, U3, U4, U5, and U6. Because everyone has their own opinion about who, or what, should count as unemployed. It sounds like the number YOU are looking for is U4, which is U3 + Discouraged Workers. -------- U3 is reported because U3 has been reported for the past 100 years. If we want to compare today's unemployment with the unemployment in 1930s, we use U3. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
- andrewprock 7y ago
  True, but at the same time, we cannot say that there is a 49% unemployment rate despite the fact that 49% of the populace are not employed.