> Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21%6,7 of people have been exposed so

> Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21%6,7 of people have been exposed so far. That's people with antibodies, not necessarily everyone who was exposed. There is zero information on seroconversion rates for mild and asymptomatic cases. We need to PCR-test a huge random sample, then follow up later with a serosurvey. Why are we not studying this? And why does nobody ever write a disclaimer listing their assumptions when making authoritative proclamations like this? It's going to shred their credibility into dust by the time this is all over, even if half of their assumptions turn out to be correct. Another study suggests that 20% infected could be enough for herd immunity, if individual variation in susceptibility is similar to the estimate for SARS-CoV-1: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v...