5 ms·

BLS Reports 14.7% Unemployment Rate

109 points by treyfitty 6y ago

treyfitty 6y ago
18 million reporting “temporary lay off” while 2 million jobs permanently eliminated. Other tidbits: Employment in information fell by 254,000 in April, driven by a decline in motion picture and sound recording industries (-217,000). The labor force participation rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the month to 60.2 percent, the lowest rate since January 1973 (when it was 60.0 percent). Total employment, as measured by the household survey, fell by 22.4 million to 133.4 million. The employment-population ratio, at 51.3 percent, dropped by 8.7 percentage points over the month. This is the lowest rate and largest over-the-month decline in the history of the series (seasonally adjusted data are available back to January 1948). (See table A-1.)
SloopJon 6y ago
For those who aren't a fan of monospaced text at 120 characters wide, there's a PDF link at the bottom of the page that includes the tables and an FAQ list: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
- elipsey 6y ago
  lol, am i the only one reading this with w3m _because_ i like that?
vmchale 6y ago
We're going to see cascading effects from this.
- generalpass 6y ago
  State and local governments are about to fade into nothing. The report last night that California is projecting a $54 billion shortfall hasn't had traction anywhere. Note they spent years building up a $20 billion rainy day fund. [1] This is serious, because the cuts they are going to be forced to take are incredible: > Required funding for K-12 schools and community colleges will shrink by $18.3 billion, under Proposition 98’s constitutional calculation. That’s more than twice the $8.3 billion California spent out of its general fund last year on its university systems. And even that article doesn't mention CalPERS, which is almost assuredly going start hitting its limits where it requires local governments to contribute a whole bunch more along with a bunch of other really bad stuff. The public pensions/unions are the single powerful lobby in the state. I'm betting California isn't even the worst, and I'm also betting the shortfall will be yet higher. I really do hope I'm wrong. [1] Coronavirus blows a $54 billion hole in California’s budget. Here are the “jaw-dropping” numbers Projected deficit nearly three times Rainy Day Fund https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/07/california-budget-to-take-54-3-billion-coronavirus-hit/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/07/california-budget-to-...
  - caterama 6y ago
    Do you have a feel for how this compares with other states?
    - TheCoelacanth 6y ago
      Many states are going to be in even worse shape.
    - bmm6o 6y ago
      Some of the (suspected and unstated) motivations for states deciding to "reopen" against medical advice is that it allows the state to get people their off unemployment rolls. This is going to be a huge factor that varies state-to-state.
  - sjg007 6y ago
    The Feds could, you know, do something to help.
    - beamatronic 6y ago
      But this is exactly what Republicans want. Shrink government spending.
      - generalpass 6y ago
        Well, that's what they tell their constituents. In practice, they increase budgets, run deficits, and increase debt every year.
      - anm89 6y ago
        Federal budget figures over the last 5 presidencies (and many other similar figures) say otherwise.
      - sumedh 6y ago
        They do the exact opposite when they are in power though.
treyfitty 6y ago
I predict that unemployment figures next month will more than double: not purely from double the job losses, but because the U3 unemployment rate requires people “to be actively seeking employment” to be in the labor force. Considering the BLS performs surveys to arrive at their labor force number, many people will forego actively seeking status due to the $600/wk federal aid and hence the denominator will be suppressed. A more accurate number which reflects true job losses from the pandemic should be the U6 Unemployment Rate (Referred to as the “real” unemployment rate).
- aaomidi 6y ago
  You're assuming people are able to sign up for unemployment... So many states are having so many delays to get it.
elipsey 6y ago
I'm trying to find an up to date graph of unemployment rate, over time, showing U1 thourgh U6 rates, which seems the "big picture". Has anyone been able to find this? Edit: oh well, I found the table. i'll make my own graph :p https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
- boulos 6y ago
  You can also get a graph this data via FRED, but you won’t have much control over the display (so if you want to roll your own, you should).
- pkaye 6y ago
  Try this. They have all the graphs from U1-U6. http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

109 points by treyfitty 6y ago

18 million reporting “temporary lay off” while 2 million jobs permanently eliminated. Other tidbits: Employment in information fell by 254,000 in April, driven by a decline in motion picture and sound recording industries (-217,000). The labor force participation rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points over the month to 60.2 percent, the lowest rate since January 1973 (when it was 60.0 percent). Total employment, as measured by the household survey, fell by 22.4 million to 133.4 million. The employment-population ratio, at 51.3 percent, dropped by 8.7 percentage points over the month. This is the lowest rate and largest over-the-month decline in the history of the series (seasonally adjusted data are available back to January 1948). (See table A-1.)

SloopJon 6y ago

For those who aren't a fan of monospaced text at 120 characters wide, there's a PDF link at the bottom of the page that includes the tables and an FAQ list: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

elipsey 6y ago
lol, am i the only one reading this with w3m _because_ i like that?

vmchale 6y ago

We're going to see cascading effects from this.

generalpass 6y ago
State and local governments are about to fade into nothing. The report last night that California is projecting a $54 billion shortfall hasn't had traction anywhere. Note they spent years building up a $20 billion rainy day fund. [1] This is serious, because the cuts they are going to be forced to take are incredible: > Required funding for K-12 schools and community colleges will shrink by $18.3 billion, under Proposition 98’s constitutional calculation. That’s more than twice the $8.3 billion California spent out of its general fund last year on its university systems. And even that article doesn't mention CalPERS, which is almost assuredly going start hitting its limits where it requires local governments to contribute a whole bunch more along with a bunch of other really bad stuff. The public pensions/unions are the single powerful lobby in the state. I'm betting California isn't even the worst, and I'm also betting the shortfall will be yet higher. I really do hope I'm wrong. [1] Coronavirus blows a $54 billion hole in California’s budget. Here are the “jaw-dropping” numbers Projected deficit nearly three times Rainy Day Fund https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/07/california-budget-to-take-54-3-billion-coronavirus-hit/ https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/07/california-budget-to-...
- caterama 6y ago
  Do you have a feel for how this compares with other states?
  - TheCoelacanth 6y ago
    Many states are going to be in even worse shape.
  - bmm6o 6y ago
    Some of the (suspected and unstated) motivations for states deciding to "reopen" against medical advice is that it allows the state to get people their off unemployment rolls. This is going to be a huge factor that varies state-to-state.
- sjg007 6y ago
  The Feds could, you know, do something to help.
  - beamatronic 6y ago
    But this is exactly what Republicans want. Shrink government spending.
    - generalpass 6y ago
      Well, that's what they tell their constituents. In practice, they increase budgets, run deficits, and increase debt every year.
    - anm89 6y ago
      Federal budget figures over the last 5 presidencies (and many other similar figures) say otherwise.
    - sumedh 6y ago
      They do the exact opposite when they are in power though.

treyfitty 6y ago

I predict that unemployment figures next month will more than double: not purely from double the job losses, but because the U3 unemployment rate requires people “to be actively seeking employment” to be in the labor force. Considering the BLS performs surveys to arrive at their labor force number, many people will forego actively seeking status due to the $600/wk federal aid and hence the denominator will be suppressed. A more accurate number which reflects true job losses from the pandemic should be the U6 Unemployment Rate (Referred to as the “real” unemployment rate).

aaomidi 6y ago
You're assuming people are able to sign up for unemployment... So many states are having so many delays to get it.

elipsey 6y ago

I'm trying to find an up to date graph of unemployment rate, over time, showing U1 thourgh U6 rates, which seems the "big picture". Has anyone been able to find this? Edit: oh well, I found the table. i'll make my own graph :p https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

boulos 6y ago
You can also get a graph this data via FRED, but you won’t have much control over the display (so if you want to roll your own, you should).
pkaye 6y ago
Try this. They have all the graphs from U1-U6. http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp