3 ms·

I don't follow. Could you ellaborate?

by narag 6y ago

pvaldes 6y ago
We have a single virus, but it does not behave the same. The difference can be structural, but maybe there is a second agent that acts as modifier and is unknown. If we take a look to the countries affected by coronavirus we can easily spot groups. For example, US, Iran or Brazil would fall in the same group IMHO in some aspects. In Europe we could see Germany, then Spain+Swedden+Netherlands, then Italy+UK, and a strange outlier At this moment we don't know where lies the difference between the number of infected cases ending in death in Germany (4% only), Spain (11%), Swedden and Netherlands (12-13%), Italy (13%) or UK (15%). France, the outlier, has a 19%. If we take the official data, France is one of the worst countries to be in Europe and maybe in the planet when you are positive (maybe french people should take extra measures to not enter in that group). Something is happening there. One explanation could be that France has a bigger amount of deaths by frustrated hospital staff leading to a worse care, or even the appearance of solitary "angels of death". The other explanation could be that they are simply missing lots of positives. More than the other countries. This can be accidental or on purpose. If the former they aren't paying enough atention to this point, if the later, they could be simply applying several layers of statistical make-up to their data, maybe for the political goal of keeping the country in a lower position in the worldwide range. In a similar style that what UK did for weeks. In this case, we could wake up one morning to see a +2000 increase in France deathcount. Lets change the subject. It seems that blood clots have a relevant role in mortality. Well, Many countries, in Europe at least, have preventive programs that put a sizeable amount of elders in an permanent anticoagulant treatment to avoid heart attacks. After the link above, It seems that each major group of countries in Europe favour a different product for that, and Italy and UK use the same product. Some products must be better than other by definition. This anomalies warrant further research in my bumbling opinion
- seren 6y ago
  Look at the number of tests by millions of people. France has a very very low test count per millions. Basically you can only be tested once you are hospitalized or in rather bad shape. On the other hand Germany is testing much more generously. Simply put the number of confirmed case cannot be compared between countries. Likely France has about 4 times the number of German's case only unconfirmed.
  - pvaldes 6y ago
    Yep, is the same that I said before... they are missing lots of positives The frivolous consequence is that France is in "7th position" and Germany in "6th". More serious consequences are that French could have a false sense of security at this moment, and that there is a lot of unknown and hidden damage being done in French lungs that could lead to a mortality increase in the future by "natural causes". Are they trying to estimate this number?
    - seren 6y ago
      Yes, the number of confirmed case is well known as an underestimation. Some other data are gathered directly from GP, people in emergency room presenting Covid-19 symptoms or nursing home reports. You can get some official data from there : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/ https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/
- narag 6y ago
  I'm sorry to say that here in Spain the situation is far worse than that. Number of cases is totally useless. It's just a fantasy, a way that governments, specially ours, use to make up the reality. Actually Spain is with Belgium in the worst place of the world counting the only relevant index: deaths per habitants. China could be worse, but their deaths number is impossible to know for us. Simplest option is to think it's been much much worse than they say. Actually number of deaths is almost certainly manipulated here too. The fact that nursing homes and people dying at home haven't been counted has been on the news weeks ago. Government just refused to adjust the numbers even when comunidades started to supply the corrected numbers. Autopsies aren't being made. And there are directives on what to write on death certificates so the virus doesn't appear except in hospitals and if the deceased suffered no other previous conditions. Sometimes last cause like stroke or heart attack are being said to be the cause. There are already estimations based on previous years deaths and they're a 50% higher at a minimum, just think that traffic and on the job fatalities must be almost non-existent so it's probably more than estimated. Everything is mediated by politics. Yesterday a high medical officer in Madrid resigned over end of quarantine because one of the two parties in the regional government imposed its views over technical criteria.
  - pvaldes 6y ago
    Belgium uses a different method to count deaths. If I'm not wrong, any death in this period (any not explained by other obvious causes) is counted as killed by coronavirus by default. Is probably not fair to compare them with the other countries at this moment. They are commiting an error by excess when all the other are commiting the opposite type of error.

I don't follow. Could you ellaborate?

by narag 6y ago

I don't follow. Could you ellaborate?

We have a single virus, but it does not behave the same. The difference can be structural, but maybe there is a second agent that acts as modifier and is unknown. If we take a look to the countries affected by coronavirus we can easily spot groups. For example, US, Iran or Brazil would fall in the same group IMHO in some aspects. In Europe we could see Germany, then Spain+Swedden+Netherlands, then Italy+UK, and a strange outlier At this moment we don't know where lies the difference between the number of infected cases ending in death in Germany (4% only), Spain (11%), Swedden and Netherlands (12-13%), Italy (13%) or UK (15%). France, the outlier, has a 19%. If we take the official data, France is one of the worst countries to be in Europe and maybe in the planet when you are positive (maybe french people should take extra measures to not enter in that group). Something is happening there. One explanation could be that France has a bigger amount of deaths by frustrated hospital staff leading to a worse care, or even the appearance of solitary "angels of death". The other explanation could be that they are simply missing lots of positives. More than the other countries. This can be accidental or on purpose. If the former they aren't paying enough atention to this point, if the later, they could be simply applying several layers of statistical make-up to their data, maybe for the political goal of keeping the country in a lower position in the worldwide range. In a similar style that what UK did for weeks. In this case, we could wake up one morning to see a +2000 increase in France deathcount. Lets change the subject. It seems that blood clots have a relevant role in mortality. Well, Many countries, in Europe at least, have preventive programs that put a sizeable amount of elders in an permanent anticoagulant treatment to avoid heart attacks. After the link above, It seems that each major group of countries in Europe favour a different product for that, and Italy and UK use the same product. Some products must be better than other by definition. This anomalies warrant further research in my bumbling opinion

seren 6y ago
Look at the number of tests by millions of people. France has a very very low test count per millions. Basically you can only be tested once you are hospitalized or in rather bad shape. On the other hand Germany is testing much more generously. Simply put the number of confirmed case cannot be compared between countries. Likely France has about 4 times the number of German's case only unconfirmed.
- pvaldes 6y ago
  Yep, is the same that I said before... they are missing lots of positives The frivolous consequence is that France is in "7th position" and Germany in "6th". More serious consequences are that French could have a false sense of security at this moment, and that there is a lot of unknown and hidden damage being done in French lungs that could lead to a mortality increase in the future by "natural causes". Are they trying to estimate this number?
  - seren 6y ago
    Yes, the number of confirmed case is well known as an underestimation. Some other data are gathered directly from GP, people in emergency room presenting Covid-19 symptoms or nursing home reports. You can get some official data from there : https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/ https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/
narag 6y ago
I'm sorry to say that here in Spain the situation is far worse than that. Number of cases is totally useless. It's just a fantasy, a way that governments, specially ours, use to make up the reality. Actually Spain is with Belgium in the worst place of the world counting the only relevant index: deaths per habitants. China could be worse, but their deaths number is impossible to know for us. Simplest option is to think it's been much much worse than they say. Actually number of deaths is almost certainly manipulated here too. The fact that nursing homes and people dying at home haven't been counted has been on the news weeks ago. Government just refused to adjust the numbers even when comunidades started to supply the corrected numbers. Autopsies aren't being made. And there are directives on what to write on death certificates so the virus doesn't appear except in hospitals and if the deceased suffered no other previous conditions. Sometimes last cause like stroke or heart attack are being said to be the cause. There are already estimations based on previous years deaths and they're a 50% higher at a minimum, just think that traffic and on the job fatalities must be almost non-existent so it's probably more than estimated. Everything is mediated by politics. Yesterday a high medical officer in Madrid resigned over end of quarantine because one of the two parties in the regional government imposed its views over technical criteria.
- pvaldes 6y ago
  Belgium uses a different method to count deaths. If I'm not wrong, any death in this period (any not explained by other obvious causes) is counted as killed by coronavirus by default. Is probably not fair to compare them with the other countries at this moment. They are commiting an error by excess when all the other are commiting the opposite type of error.