4 ms·

Cases and deaths in Asia (N & S hemispheres, 1st & 3rd world) are significantly lower than elsewhere. > So far no one has shown that any of these virus isolate

Cases and deaths in Asia (N & S hemispheres, 1st & 3rd world) are significantly lower than elsewhere. > So far no one has shown that any of these virus isolates differ in any fundamental property. A different sequence is prevalent elsewhere. Not proof, but suggestive of a property difference.

dmos62 6y ago
I'm shooting in the dark here, but isn't it equally suggestive of a property difference among races (if that's the proper term)?
- lexicality 6y ago
  Tbh the most likely explanation is the very strong prevalence of mask wearing in asian cultures which dramatically reduces (but doesn't eliminate) transmission rates.
9nGQluzmnq3M 6y ago
The jury is still very much out for many Asian countries (India, Indonesia, etc), and there are a plethora of other factors that can explain the difference: demographics, genetics, comorbidities, sunlight (UV-B), heat/humidity, access to testing etc. Also, the virus originated from one point (Wuhan) and was spread more or less simultaneously across the world. It would be quite odd if one strain hopped on all the west/east-bound planes, while another strain found its way only to the south-bound planes. Not to mention that the 'second wave' of infections in APAC originated largely from Europe.
- hyperpallium 6y ago
  The hypothesis is the mutation occurred outside of Asia, and countries in Asia closed ports after the initial infections, but before the mutation. > sunlight (UV-B), heat/humidity Much of Asia is in the northern hemisphere (e.g. China and Japan); same season as Europe and USA. Australia is in Asia too, close to China with much travel between. I agree there are many factors and it's early. But the low cases and deaths over all countries in Asia has a peculiar uniformity - in contrast to elsewhere.
  - 9nGQluzmnq3M 6y ago
    > Australia is in Asia too, close to China Most geographers would disagree. It's a 12-hour flight from Beijing to Sydney, no closer than Beijing to San Francisco.
  - barkingcat 6y ago
    The continent of Australia is massive. It contains many distinct ecosystems. Referring to Australia as being "close to China" is like saying Russia is close to England. It's its own continent. To put it in more concrete terms, any (direct) flight you look up from Wuhan to any city in Australia is 12+ hours. That's a much longer flight than New York to London.
  - hyperpallium 6y ago
    Wow, HN is strange sometimes. Have covid19 strains become political/tribal somehow? I'm just pointing out something interesting in the data I was curious about. It's a pity HN picks out one detail and ignores the interesting thing... but upon reflection, pedantry is typical of today's HN, and partly why pg withdrew. Regarding Australia, it's often said we are in the Asia region. And for the specific purposes here, of initial transmission, we have much contact with China, through tourism, education, primary produce and trade in general. It's expected we'd get initial infection direct from China (which trwcing shows we did), rather than via Europe.
    - 9nGQluzmnq3M 6y ago
      I didn't downvote you (can't even if I wanted to since you replied to me!), but the difference in outcomes is unlikely to be explained solely by differing strains, and there's no evidence at this time that the mutations have any biologically meaningful difference: https://www.virology.ws/2020/05/07/there-is-one-and-only-one-strain-of-sars-cov-2/ https://www.virology.ws/2020/05/07/there-is-one-and-only-one...
      - hyperpallium 6y ago
        Thanks. I did say it was only "suggestive". A series of similar events in similar circumstances can be explained by a series of different causes, but it seems worth looking at a similar cause, no? This is at the stage of initial hypothesis. Gosh, maybe people thought I was saying it was the absolute truth.
iamgopal 6y ago
Among many reasons, one is compulsory TB vaccine.
sradman 6y ago
Canada has had a unique situation in that a large proportion of the population was out of country when the pandemic went exponential outside of Wuhan. The large number of imported cases represented every isolate found globally. Perhaps this hypothesis has been ignored but it seems that functional change should have jumped out of this dataset.

dmos62 6y ago

I'm shooting in the dark here, but isn't it equally suggestive of a property difference among races (if that's the proper term)?

lexicality 6y ago
Tbh the most likely explanation is the very strong prevalence of mask wearing in asian cultures which dramatically reduces (but doesn't eliminate) transmission rates.

9nGQluzmnq3M 6y ago

The jury is still very much out for many Asian countries (India, Indonesia, etc), and there are a plethora of other factors that can explain the difference: demographics, genetics, comorbidities, sunlight (UV-B), heat/humidity, access to testing etc. Also, the virus originated from one point (Wuhan) and was spread more or less simultaneously across the world. It would be quite odd if one strain hopped on all the west/east-bound planes, while another strain found its way only to the south-bound planes. Not to mention that the 'second wave' of infections in APAC originated largely from Europe.

hyperpallium 6y ago
The hypothesis is the mutation occurred outside of Asia, and countries in Asia closed ports after the initial infections, but before the mutation. > sunlight (UV-B), heat/humidity Much of Asia is in the northern hemisphere (e.g. China and Japan); same season as Europe and USA. Australia is in Asia too, close to China with much travel between. I agree there are many factors and it's early. But the low cases and deaths over all countries in Asia has a peculiar uniformity - in contrast to elsewhere.
- 9nGQluzmnq3M 6y ago
  > Australia is in Asia too, close to China Most geographers would disagree. It's a 12-hour flight from Beijing to Sydney, no closer than Beijing to San Francisco.
- barkingcat 6y ago
  The continent of Australia is massive. It contains many distinct ecosystems. Referring to Australia as being "close to China" is like saying Russia is close to England. It's its own continent. To put it in more concrete terms, any (direct) flight you look up from Wuhan to any city in Australia is 12+ hours. That's a much longer flight than New York to London.
- hyperpallium 6y ago
  Wow, HN is strange sometimes. Have covid19 strains become political/tribal somehow? I'm just pointing out something interesting in the data I was curious about. It's a pity HN picks out one detail and ignores the interesting thing... but upon reflection, pedantry is typical of today's HN, and partly why pg withdrew. Regarding Australia, it's often said we are in the Asia region. And for the specific purposes here, of initial transmission, we have much contact with China, through tourism, education, primary produce and trade in general. It's expected we'd get initial infection direct from China (which trwcing shows we did), rather than via Europe.
  - 9nGQluzmnq3M 6y ago
    I didn't downvote you (can't even if I wanted to since you replied to me!), but the difference in outcomes is unlikely to be explained solely by differing strains, and there's no evidence at this time that the mutations have any biologically meaningful difference: https://www.virology.ws/2020/05/07/there-is-one-and-only-one-strain-of-sars-cov-2/ https://www.virology.ws/2020/05/07/there-is-one-and-only-one...
    - hyperpallium 6y ago
      Thanks. I did say it was only "suggestive". A series of similar events in similar circumstances can be explained by a series of different causes, but it seems worth looking at a similar cause, no? This is at the stage of initial hypothesis. Gosh, maybe people thought I was saying it was the absolute truth.

iamgopal 6y ago

Among many reasons, one is compulsory TB vaccine.

sradman 6y ago

Canada has had a unique situation in that a large proportion of the population was out of country when the pandemic went exponential outside of Wuhan. The large number of imported cases represented every isolate found globally. Perhaps this hypothesis has been ignored but it seems that functional change should have jumped out of this dataset.