3 ms·
> What's the end-game here, assuming the disease goes endemic in the rest of the world (as seems likely) Test and trace. With cases near zero, it's very feasi
by newacct583 6y ago
> What's the end-game here, assuming the disease goes endemic in the rest of the world (as seems likely)
Test and trace. With cases near zero, it's very feasible to test every inbound flight (or require test results from the passengers) and every potential contact of every new case. When the likelihood of an infected person going undetected goes down far enough, R0 goes from >1 to <1 and outbreaks shrink over time instead of spreading.
This works. It's not cheap, but it's a lot better than trying to ration hospital resources in a pandemic outbreak.
- gmanis 6y agoI would say, they should test irrespective of whether the traveller had tested negative in their home country. There can be difference in testing kits quality or perhaps just a false negative.
- newacct583 6y agoOnly if those tests aren't more valuably deployed for some other purpose. Nothing in epidemic control is about perfection. You'll never be able to catch every single transmission. The goal is to reduce the average rate of transmission among the whole population, such that the average number of people infected by one new case (the "R0" number that keeps getting thrown around) goes below one. Once you do that, you win.