3 ms·

> The bet is that over time deaths will be roughly the same, lockdown or not The total number of infections will be the same up until a vaccine is developed, b

> The bet is that over time deaths will be roughly the same, lockdown or not The total number of infections will be the same up until a vaccine is developed, but the death rate can be lowered by delaying widespread infection until treatments are developed, tested, and deployed, and by keeping the infection rate at a level the medical system can handle.

mikem170 6y ago
Can that be a personal decision, for example: Person #1) I'm at risk and there are no good treatments, so I will self-isolate, waiting for vaccines, better treatment, and/or this to go away. Person #2) I'm young, my risk is negligable, hospitals are not overwhelmed, and I have to support my family, my kids need to go to school, etc. Why does person #1 get to tell person #2 what to do?
- brlewis 6y ago
  Unfortunately, if Person #2 chooses to get sick sooner, it increases the probability that Person #1 will get sick sooner. All precautions are multiplicative factors. See https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/saving-your-health-one-mask-time-peter-tippett-md-phd/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/saving-your-health-one-mask-t...
  - mikem170 6y ago
    >Unfortunately, if Person #2 chooses to get sick sooner, it increases the probability that Person #1 will get sick How does person #1 catch something if they are self isolating and don't interact with person #2? You mentioned the probability of this, an increased risk for person #1 even if they are self isolating. I can grant that there is some risk associated with this But how does that compare to the impact that these lockdowns are having on tens of millions of people. What if there won't be a vaccine soon enough, and herd immunity amongst the young is our best defense, and lockdowns just prolonged the economic misery and didn't save lives in the end? Still a possible outcome at this point.
    - brlewis 6y ago
      > How does person #1 catch something if they are self isolating and don't interact with person #2? Person #1 can't be 100% isolated. Person #2 can breathe on produce at the grocery store that supplies Person #1. Person #2 can infect Person #3 with whom Person #1 can't completely avoid interaction. I can't answer the other questions. I just think we have to proceed with caution because ending the lockdown could cause irreversible spread of the virus.

mikem170 6y ago

Can that be a personal decision, for example: Person #1) I'm at risk and there are no good treatments, so I will self-isolate, waiting for vaccines, better treatment, and/or this to go away. Person #2) I'm young, my risk is negligable, hospitals are not overwhelmed, and I have to support my family, my kids need to go to school, etc. Why does person #1 get to tell person #2 what to do?

brlewis 6y ago
Unfortunately, if Person #2 chooses to get sick sooner, it increases the probability that Person #1 will get sick sooner. All precautions are multiplicative factors. See https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/saving-your-health-one-mask-time-peter-tippett-md-phd/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/saving-your-health-one-mask-t...
- mikem170 6y ago
  >Unfortunately, if Person #2 chooses to get sick sooner, it increases the probability that Person #1 will get sick How does person #1 catch something if they are self isolating and don't interact with person #2? You mentioned the probability of this, an increased risk for person #1 even if they are self isolating. I can grant that there is some risk associated with this But how does that compare to the impact that these lockdowns are having on tens of millions of people. What if there won't be a vaccine soon enough, and herd immunity amongst the young is our best defense, and lockdowns just prolonged the economic misery and didn't save lives in the end? Still a possible outcome at this point.
  - brlewis 6y ago
    > How does person #1 catch something if they are self isolating and don't interact with person #2? Person #1 can't be 100% isolated. Person #2 can breathe on produce at the grocery store that supplies Person #1. Person #2 can infect Person #3 with whom Person #1 can't completely avoid interaction. I can't answer the other questions. I just think we have to proceed with caution because ending the lockdown could cause irreversible spread of the virus.