3 ms·

You are safe until you are not. That's how the exponential works.

• s1artibartfast 7y ago
  True, but growth is not exponential in the US and has been flat since the start of April. If growth increases, you know it is becoming more dangerous. If growth decreases, you know it is becoming less dangerous.
  • sjg007 7y ago
    Growth is still exponential in many places in the USA. What you are witnessing is Simpon's paradox. Basically factor out NYC and a few others and you see the exponential. Also all it takes is letting off the brake and where growth is flat will accelerate again. Also what we want is a 14 day decline in new cases. Then we should consider re-opening. People refused to social distance and ruined it for everyone.
    • s1artibartfast 7y ago
      You don’t see exponential for any of the top 10 states. What does a 14 day decline mean for a state that never had a significant outbreak. I have seen zero evidence that there is a meaningful spoiler effect. If you have any data, I would be very interested.
      • sjg007 7y ago
        It would mean 0 new cases.
        • s1artibartfast 7y ago
          That strikes me as a unproductive threshold to maintain a lockdown. what do you think? Also, I check and there are no states experiencing exponential growth.
          • sjg007 7y ago
            You are wrong on both parts here.
            • s1artibartfast 7y ago
              Show me one state with exponential growth. You can see each state here: https://datacat.cc/covid/ https://datacat.cc/covid/ Country: US District instead of country: Yes Cumulative Cases: no Any state with exponential growth should show increasing cases. Alternatively, you can look at data on washington post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/corona...