5 ms·

> This virus kills 0.5 to 1% of infected people across population. It can infect more than 50% of the population. Everyone would know somebody who died because

> This virus kills 0.5 to 1% of infected people across population. It can infect more than 50% of the population. Everyone would know somebody who died because of the virus. The economy can not function when people are dying left and right. Doesn't around 0.8% of the population die each year normally? So at worst (everyone infected) we'd have a year or two where all-cause mortality roughly doubles (concentrated in people 65+ year olds)? That's a big increase and by no means easy to handle, but surely that shouldn't end or stop the economy like you're claiming.

Isinlor 6y ago
We don't need to speculate - it is happening in Belarus. Sweden is quite close to a lock-down, but Belarus is far away from a lock-down. Lukaszenko is advising sport, especially on ice and vodka to fight off the virus. Still, Belarus mobility statistics according to Google [0] are: Retail & recreation: -16% Transit stations: -20% Workplaces: -25% Their economic activity is certainly reduced right now. People do not want to expose themselves even if their leaders are downplaying it. BTW - Belarus was probably prepared the best in the world for pandemic with 11 beds per 1000 people vs. 5.8 beds per 1000 people in EU in 2010 [2]. So entering speculation again, IMF is projecting 6% GDP contraction in Belarus [1]. Another data point is Open Table (restaurants reservations) data [3] from USA. Most of the drop in reservations happened before lock-down. People decided to not go on their own - on average 73% down before restaurants were ordered to close. My prediction is that up-tick in states that are opening right now will be very small as well. [0] https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-30_BY_Mobility_Report_en.pdf https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-30_BY_Mobil... [1] https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/BLR https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/BLR [2] https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=SH.MED.BEDS.ZS&country= https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=... [3] https://s4.freebeacon.com/up/2020/04/plot2.png https://s4.freebeacon.com/up/2020/04/plot2.png
- CryptoPunk 6y ago
  Your statistics don't support your position, that people's natural reaction to the virus would reduce economic productivity as much as the lockdown does.

Isinlor 6y ago

We don't need to speculate - it is happening in Belarus. Sweden is quite close to a lock-down, but Belarus is far away from a lock-down. Lukaszenko is advising sport, especially on ice and vodka to fight off the virus. Still, Belarus mobility statistics according to Google [0] are: Retail & recreation: -16% Transit stations: -20% Workplaces: -25% Their economic activity is certainly reduced right now. People do not want to expose themselves even if their leaders are downplaying it. BTW - Belarus was probably prepared the best in the world for pandemic with 11 beds per 1000 people vs. 5.8 beds per 1000 people in EU in 2010 [2]. So entering speculation again, IMF is projecting 6% GDP contraction in Belarus [1]. Another data point is Open Table (restaurants reservations) data [3] from USA. Most of the drop in reservations happened before lock-down. People decided to not go on their own - on average 73% down before restaurants were ordered to close. My prediction is that up-tick in states that are opening right now will be very small as well. [0] https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-30_BY_Mobility_Report_en.pdf https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-30_BY_Mobil... [1] https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/BLR https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/BLR [2] https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=SH.MED.BEDS.ZS&country= https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=2&series=... [3] https://s4.freebeacon.com/up/2020/04/plot2.png https://s4.freebeacon.com/up/2020/04/plot2.png

CryptoPunk 6y ago
Your statistics don't support your position, that people's natural reaction to the virus would reduce economic productivity as much as the lockdown does.