5 ms·

I'm pretty sure the worst-case scenario for a healthy person under 30 is around 0.1% IFR. Other estimates are better than that.

• rootusrootus 6y ago
  I would wager that under 30 it's probably a good bit lower than 0.1% IFR. This is the problem with trying to come up with an overall IFR for the disease. It makes a certain sense at a macro level, but for assessing your own exposure it doesn't mean a lot. People under 30 have a really low risk, people over 70 should probably weld their doors shut.
  • DuskStar 6y ago
    Oh, certainly! I meant that the worst case under-30 IFR - the one corresponding with something like 5% overall IFR - is around 0.1%. Something like 0.01% is easily within the bounds of possibility from what I understand. (For reference, the death rate for SCUBA divers is ~16/100,000/year - or 0.016%/year. Yes, SCUBA is risky, but it certainly puts things in perspective)
    • rootusrootus 6y ago
      I think we'd all benefit from an effort to put perspective on the risk of this disease. E.g. if everyone knew that the one-time risk from COVID is approximately equal to their annual risk of all-cause death, it would be easier to reason about.