4 ms·

I honestly, genuinely believe that people are a) too divided, and b) too content to complain online v organize actual change for any sort of revolution to happe

I honestly, genuinely believe that people are a) too divided, and b) too content to complain online v organize actual change for any sort of revolution to happen. I genuinely believe it will take a failure of an absolute overwhelming magnitude (internet goes completely down and society collapses) for an actual, classic-style revolution.

ashtonkem 7y ago
Predicting if, or when, a revolution will arrive is a tricky thing. There are plenty of cases where revolutionary participants themselves dismissed the chances of a revolution hours or days before they kick off. They only look inevitable in hindsight. Regardless; even long short of kicking off a revolution, punishing the populace for being scared is bad politics.
- qqn 7y ago
  Yes, from Dan Carlin's podcasts I learned of the book The Great Illusion (1909), the illusion being that nations gained through war. In it, the author wrote that "the economic cost of war was so great that no one could possibly hope to gain by starting a war the consequences of which would be so disastrous," concluding that a general European war was very unlikely to start, and if it did, it would not last long. This was a popular view, yet WWI still kicked off just a few years later. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion
  - ashtonkem 7y ago
    “This time is different” is quite the siren song in several areas of human endeavors.
    - qqn 7y ago
      The oldest joke on Wall Street, or so they say.
  - nostrademons 7y ago
    Amazing that you can be both so right and so wrong at the same time. That central thesis is true - WW1 and WW2 were devastating to the economies of the nations involved (many of which didn't survive as ongoing political organizations). He just underestimated the extent to which humanity is irrational, short-sighted, and self-destructive.
close04 7y ago
It's a classic dilemma. The revolution only succeeds if the "revolutionary group" has a substantial majority support. But if it fails, the "revolutionary group" suffers exaggerated negative consequences. Same for those who jump in too early. Without solid coordination very few risk those odds.
A4ET8a8uTh0 7y ago
You may be onto something. Most of the people seemed to have been mollified by the ability to share their plight with others via social media or gorging on streaming. Internet made current issues somewhat acceptable in that regard. If the internet went down, people might not like the silence and their own thoughts. I initially thought ISPs removed data caps and all those for WFH, but now I think it is part of the effort to keep the society intact.
crispyambulance 7y ago
> failure of an absolute overwhelming magnitude (internet goes completely down and society collapses) for an actual, classic-style revolution. Once unemployment goes too far past 20% and stays there long enough, we'll see social safety nets fail and serious numbers of folks penniless and dependent on aid for basic survival. That's enough, I think, to precipitate revolution or at least angry people not cooperating, breaking things, making demands, and overwhelming anything the government/police can do to stop it.
michaelbrave 7y ago
Perhaps not a widespread revolution, but something akin to seceding could happen I think. If California and NY decide that being a part of the US isn't working for them anymore that's how a next civil war could start. Something similar was happening in Spain before corona, Catalonia felt that their taxes were supporting the rest of the nation (much like California for the US) and so they wanted to leave. They've not been successful and most of their leaders jailed but a similar sentiment could start if the divisions continue as they are.
- Leherenn 7y ago
  Catalonia has a different language and culture, and was repressed under Franco. It's not just the taxes, or you would see most major cities looking for independence.

ashtonkem 7y ago

Predicting if, or when, a revolution will arrive is a tricky thing. There are plenty of cases where revolutionary participants themselves dismissed the chances of a revolution hours or days before they kick off. They only look inevitable in hindsight. Regardless; even long short of kicking off a revolution, punishing the populace for being scared is bad politics.

qqn 7y ago
Yes, from Dan Carlin's podcasts I learned of the book The Great Illusion (1909), the illusion being that nations gained through war. In it, the author wrote that "the economic cost of war was so great that no one could possibly hope to gain by starting a war the consequences of which would be so disastrous," concluding that a general European war was very unlikely to start, and if it did, it would not last long. This was a popular view, yet WWI still kicked off just a few years later. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion
- ashtonkem 7y ago
  “This time is different” is quite the siren song in several areas of human endeavors.
  - qqn 7y ago
    The oldest joke on Wall Street, or so they say.
- nostrademons 7y ago
  Amazing that you can be both so right and so wrong at the same time. That central thesis is true - WW1 and WW2 were devastating to the economies of the nations involved (many of which didn't survive as ongoing political organizations). He just underestimated the extent to which humanity is irrational, short-sighted, and self-destructive.

close04 7y ago

It's a classic dilemma. The revolution only succeeds if the "revolutionary group" has a substantial majority support. But if it fails, the "revolutionary group" suffers exaggerated negative consequences. Same for those who jump in too early. Without solid coordination very few risk those odds.

A4ET8a8uTh0 7y ago

You may be onto something. Most of the people seemed to have been mollified by the ability to share their plight with others via social media or gorging on streaming. Internet made current issues somewhat acceptable in that regard. If the internet went down, people might not like the silence and their own thoughts. I initially thought ISPs removed data caps and all those for WFH, but now I think it is part of the effort to keep the society intact.

crispyambulance 7y ago

> failure of an absolute overwhelming magnitude (internet goes completely down and society collapses) for an actual, classic-style revolution. Once unemployment goes too far past 20% and stays there long enough, we'll see social safety nets fail and serious numbers of folks penniless and dependent on aid for basic survival. That's enough, I think, to precipitate revolution or at least angry people not cooperating, breaking things, making demands, and overwhelming anything the government/police can do to stop it.

michaelbrave 7y ago

Perhaps not a widespread revolution, but something akin to seceding could happen I think. If California and NY decide that being a part of the US isn't working for them anymore that's how a next civil war could start. Something similar was happening in Spain before corona, Catalonia felt that their taxes were supporting the rest of the nation (much like California for the US) and so they wanted to leave. They've not been successful and most of their leaders jailed but a similar sentiment could start if the divisions continue as they are.

Leherenn 7y ago
Catalonia has a different language and culture, and was repressed under Franco. It's not just the taxes, or you would see most major cities looking for independence.