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The evidence shows that this model did not have good predictive power. For example, the predictions made about Sweden did not come to pass. The predictions ma
by tomohawk 6y ago
The evidence shows that this model did not have good predictive power. For example, the predictions made about Sweden did not come to pass. The predictions made about the US did not come to pass - specifically, 5400 hospitalizations were predicted by by March 19 for NYC, but only 750 actually occurred - off by an order of magnitude before lockdown measures could have any impact.
Did this model provide clarity and insight for the decision making process? Or, did it instead induce a false sense of panic?
Here's some more info as to what this repo does and does not contain, and why what was released is not enough.
https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/ https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-...